Ongoing US-mediated talks since April 2026 have produced conditional ceasefires and direct government-to-government negotiations focused on border security, Lebanese Armed Forces deployment south of the Litani River, and Hezbollah disarmament. Lebanese officials have repeatedly stated that full diplomatic normalization remains far off and is conditioned on a Palestinian state under the Arab Peace Initiative, while Hezbollah has rejected the agreements and retains significant military capacity. Domestic Lebanese constraints, including anti-normalization laws and political resistance, further limit progress toward formal relations by the end of 2026. These factors underpin trader consensus that normalization is unlikely within the resolution window despite incremental security diplomacy.