Ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran, mediated by Pakistan since April 2026, center on extending the fragile ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and addressing Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missiles amid intermittent violations and limited strikes. President Trump has repeatedly stated that a broader agreement is largely negotiated or close but has sought edits to draft terms, rejected Iranian proposals, and maintained a U.S. naval blockade while keeping military options ready. Recent developments include June exchanges of fire and statements signaling both progress toward a 60-day extension and openness to direct engagement if core concessions materialize, with talks remaining subject to final approvals and external pressures from allies. These diplomatic and military dynamics shape trader assessments of when formal announcement of the ceasefire's end becomes likely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
NEW
$29,084 Vol.
Jun 9, 2026
June 8
<1%
June 12
3%
June 15
6%
June 30
16%
$29,084 Vol.
June 8
$8,710 Vol.
<1%
June 12
$5,951 Vol.
3%
June 15
$14,770 Vol.
6%
June 30
$1,199 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.Ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran, mediated by Pakistan since April 2026, center on extending the fragile ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and addressing Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missiles amid intermittent violations and limited strikes. President Trump has repeatedly stated that a broader agreement is largely negotiated or close but has sought edits to draft terms, rejected Iranian proposals, and maintained a U.S. naval blockade while keeping military options ready. Recent developments include June exchanges of fire and statements signaling both progress toward a 60-day extension and openness to direct engagement if core concessions materialize, with talks remaining subject to final approvals and external pressures from allies. These diplomatic and military dynamics shape trader assessments of when formal announcement of the ceasefire's end becomes likely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 8, 2026, 9:53 PM ET
Volume
$29,084End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jun 8, 2026, 9:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.Ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran, mediated by Pakistan since April 2026, center on extending the fragile ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and addressing Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missiles amid intermittent violations and limited strikes. President Trump has repeatedly stated that a broader agreement is largely negotiated or close but has sought edits to draft terms, rejected Iranian proposals, and maintained a U.S. naval blockade while keeping military options ready. Recent developments include June exchanges of fire and statements signaling both progress toward a 60-day extension and openness to direct engagement if core concessions materialize, with talks remaining subject to final approvals and external pressures from allies. These diplomatic and military dynamics shape trader assessments of when formal announcement of the ceasefire's end becomes likely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Volume
$29,084End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jun 8, 2026, 9:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran, mediated by Pakistan since April 2026, center on extending the fragile ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and addressing Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missiles amid intermittent violations and limited strikes. President Trump has repeatedly stated that a broader agreement is largely negotiated or close but has sought edits to draft terms, rejected Iranian proposals, and maintained a U.S. naval blockade while keeping military options ready. Recent developments include June exchanges of fire and statements signaling both progress toward a 60-day extension and openness to direct engagement if core concessions materialize, with talks remaining subject to final approvals and external pressures from allies. These diplomatic and military dynamics shape trader assessments of when formal announcement of the ceasefire's end becomes likely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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