A fragile US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, initiated on April 16, 2026, for 10 days to facilitate negotiations toward a permanent security agreement, was extended by three weeks following Washington talks around April 23, yet both sides continue limited military actions, including recent Israeli strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon that wounded dozens and Hezbollah drone attacks killing IDF personnel. Israel, under Prime Minister Netanyahu, rejects Hezbollah demands for full withdrawal from a reinforced security zone and insists on the group's disarmament, while Hezbollah, not a direct party to the truce, deems it meaningless amid ongoing clashes resumed in March. No progress on a comprehensive peace deal has materialized, with trader consensus reflecting persistent escalation risks and core sticking points like territorial disputes and Iranian backing for Hezbollah ahead of any resolution deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
$102,195 Vol.
May 31, 2026
May 31
7%
$102,195 Vol.
May 31
$25,113 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, initiated on April 16, 2026, for 10 days to facilitate negotiations toward a permanent security agreement, was extended by three weeks following Washington talks around April 23, yet both sides continue limited military actions, including recent Israeli strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon that wounded dozens and Hezbollah drone attacks killing IDF personnel. Israel, under Prime Minister Netanyahu, rejects Hezbollah demands for full withdrawal from a reinforced security zone and insists on the group's disarmament, while Hezbollah, not a direct party to the truce, deems it meaningless amid ongoing clashes resumed in March. No progress on a comprehensive peace deal has materialized, with trader consensus reflecting persistent escalation risks and core sticking points like territorial disputes and Iranian backing for Hezbollah ahead of any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ET
Volume
$102,195End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, initiated on April 16, 2026, for 10 days to facilitate negotiations toward a permanent security agreement, was extended by three weeks following Washington talks around April 23, yet both sides continue limited military actions, including recent Israeli strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon that wounded dozens and Hezbollah drone attacks killing IDF personnel. Israel, under Prime Minister Netanyahu, rejects Hezbollah demands for full withdrawal from a reinforced security zone and insists on the group's disarmament, while Hezbollah, not a direct party to the truce, deems it meaningless amid ongoing clashes resumed in March. No progress on a comprehensive peace deal has materialized, with trader consensus reflecting persistent escalation risks and core sticking points like territorial disputes and Iranian backing for Hezbollah ahead of any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$102,195End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, initiated on April 16, 2026, for 10 days to facilitate negotiations toward a permanent security agreement, was extended by three weeks following Washington talks around April 23, yet both sides continue limited military actions, including recent Israeli strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon that wounded dozens and Hezbollah drone attacks killing IDF personnel. Israel, under Prime Minister Netanyahu, rejects Hezbollah demands for full withdrawal from a reinforced security zone and insists on the group's disarmament, while Hezbollah, not a direct party to the truce, deems it meaningless amid ongoing clashes resumed in March. No progress on a comprehensive peace deal has materialized, with trader consensus reflecting persistent escalation risks and core sticking points like territorial disputes and Iranian backing for Hezbollah ahead of any resolution deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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