US-Iran nuclear negotiations remain stalled over uranium enrichment terms, fueling trader consensus at 59% "No" for Iran publicly agreeing to end all enrichment by December 31, 2026. On April 27, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signaled internal leadership divisions to mediators, while President Trump rejected Tehran's proposal to prioritize Strait of Hormuz reopening and ceasefire without upfront concessions on highly enriched uranium stockpiles or enrichment capabilities. Failed Islamabad talks earlier in April highlighted the core dispute: US demands for a 20-year ban versus Iran's offer of five years, echoing Supreme Leader Khamenei's earlier vows to retain enrichment rights. IAEA access concerns persist amid post-ceasefire tensions, with no scheduled high-level meetings but potential mediated rounds ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$118,776 Vol.
$118,776 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$118,776 Vol.
$118,776 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-Iran nuclear negotiations remain stalled over uranium enrichment terms, fueling trader consensus at 59% "No" for Iran publicly agreeing to end all enrichment by December 31, 2026. On April 27, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signaled internal leadership divisions to mediators, while President Trump rejected Tehran's proposal to prioritize Strait of Hormuz reopening and ceasefire without upfront concessions on highly enriched uranium stockpiles or enrichment capabilities. Failed Islamabad talks earlier in April highlighted the core dispute: US demands for a 20-year ban versus Iran's offer of five years, echoing Supreme Leader Khamenei's earlier vows to retain enrichment rights. IAEA access concerns persist amid post-ceasefire tensions, with no scheduled high-level meetings but potential mediated rounds ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$118,776End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-Iran nuclear negotiations remain stalled over uranium enrichment terms, fueling trader consensus at 59% "No" for Iran publicly agreeing to end all enrichment by December 31, 2026. On April 27, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signaled internal leadership divisions to mediators, while President Trump rejected Tehran's proposal to prioritize Strait of Hormuz reopening and ceasefire without upfront concessions on highly enriched uranium stockpiles or enrichment capabilities. Failed Islamabad talks earlier in April highlighted the core dispute: US demands for a 20-year ban versus Iran's offer of five years, echoing Supreme Leader Khamenei's earlier vows to retain enrichment rights. IAEA access concerns persist amid post-ceasefire tensions, with no scheduled high-level meetings but potential mediated rounds ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$118,807End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran nuclear negotiations remain stalled over uranium enrichment terms, fueling trader consensus at 59% "No" for Iran publicly agreeing to end all enrichment by December 31, 2026. On April 27, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signaled internal leadership divisions to mediators, while President Trump rejected Tehran's proposal to prioritize Strait of Hormuz reopening and ceasefire without upfront concessions on highly enriched uranium stockpiles or enrichment capabilities. Failed Islamabad talks earlier in April highlighted the core dispute: US demands for a 20-year ban versus Iran's offer of five years, echoing Supreme Leader Khamenei's earlier vows to retain enrichment rights. IAEA access concerns persist amid post-ceasefire tensions, with no scheduled high-level meetings but potential mediated rounds ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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