Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated indirectly through Oman and Pakistan, center on Iran's uranium enrichment program as the core dispute. Washington has pressed for a multi-year moratorium (reportedly seeking 20 years) plus removal or monitored down-blending of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, following 2025 military strikes that damaged key facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Tehran has countered with shorter suspensions (3-5 or single-digit years) while asserting its NPT right to enrichment and rejecting permanent cessation. Recent April-May 2026 talks produced draft framework language for a temporary pause, sanctions relief sequencing, and further talks on stockpile and enrichment limits, though gaps persist. The 62.5% implied probability for an agreement to end enrichment by year-end reflects trader assessment of sustained diplomatic momentum and the incentive for both sides to reach a time-bound deal before escalation risks rise, tempered by Iran's consistent refusal of zero-enrichment outcomes and verification hurdles reported by the IAEA.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$528,914 Vol.
$528,914 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$528,914 Vol.
$528,914 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated indirectly through Oman and Pakistan, center on Iran's uranium enrichment program as the core dispute. Washington has pressed for a multi-year moratorium (reportedly seeking 20 years) plus removal or monitored down-blending of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, following 2025 military strikes that damaged key facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Tehran has countered with shorter suspensions (3-5 or single-digit years) while asserting its NPT right to enrichment and rejecting permanent cessation.
Recent April-May 2026 talks produced draft framework language for a temporary pause, sanctions relief sequencing, and further talks on stockpile and enrichment limits, though gaps persist. The 62.5% implied probability for an agreement to end enrichment by year-end reflects trader assessment of sustained diplomatic momentum and the incentive for both sides to reach a time-bound deal before escalation risks rise, tempered by Iran's consistent refusal of zero-enrichment outcomes and verification hurdles reported by the IAEA.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$528,914End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated indirectly through Oman and Pakistan, center on Iran's uranium enrichment program as the core dispute. Washington has pressed for a multi-year moratorium (reportedly seeking 20 years) plus removal or monitored down-blending of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, following 2025 military strikes that damaged key facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Tehran has countered with shorter suspensions (3-5 or single-digit years) while asserting its NPT right to enrichment and rejecting permanent cessation.
Recent April-May 2026 talks produced draft framework language for a temporary pause, sanctions relief sequencing, and further talks on stockpile and enrichment limits, though gaps persist. The 62.5% implied probability for an agreement to end enrichment by year-end reflects trader assessment of sustained diplomatic momentum and the incentive for both sides to reach a time-bound deal before escalation risks rise, tempered by Iran's consistent refusal of zero-enrichment outcomes and verification hurdles reported by the IAEA.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$529,246End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated indirectly through Oman and Pakistan, center on Iran's uranium enrichment program as the core dispute. Washington has pressed for a multi-year moratorium (reportedly seeking 20 years) plus removal or monitored down-blending of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, following 2025 military strikes that damaged key facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Tehran has countered with shorter suspensions (3-5 or single-digit years) while asserting its NPT right to enrichment and rejecting permanent cessation. Recent April-May 2026 talks produced draft framework language for a temporary pause, sanctions relief sequencing, and further talks on stockpile and enrichment limits, though gaps persist. The 62.5% implied probability for an agreement to end enrichment by year-end reflects trader assessment of sustained diplomatic momentum and the incentive for both sides to reach a time-bound deal before escalation risks rise, tempered by Iran's consistent refusal of zero-enrichment outcomes and verification hurdles reported by the IAEA.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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