Traders assign a 97.5% probability that Ukraine will not sign a comprehensive peace deal with Russia by June 30 because trilateral negotiations have remained stalled since early 2026, with no breakthrough on core issues such as territorial control and security guarantees. Russian officials have repeatedly rejected Ukrainian ceasefire proposals and insisted on recognition of seized areas, while temporary halts like the April Orthodox Easter pause quickly collapsed amid mutual violations. US-mediated efforts under the Trump administration, including a self-imposed June deadline, produced prisoner exchanges but no framework acceptable to both sides, and talks entered a pause amid competing priorities. With only weeks remaining and positions entrenched, a sudden agreement would require rapid concessions not indicated in recent diplomatic statements. Late developments such as direct leader-level talks or major battlefield shifts could theoretically alter timelines, though historical patterns suggest limited scope for resolution before the cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$697,910 Vol.
$697,910 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$697,910 Vol.
$697,910 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 97.5% probability that Ukraine will not sign a comprehensive peace deal with Russia by June 30 because trilateral negotiations have remained stalled since early 2026, with no breakthrough on core issues such as territorial control and security guarantees. Russian officials have repeatedly rejected Ukrainian ceasefire proposals and insisted on recognition of seized areas, while temporary halts like the April Orthodox Easter pause quickly collapsed amid mutual violations. US-mediated efforts under the Trump administration, including a self-imposed June deadline, produced prisoner exchanges but no framework acceptable to both sides, and talks entered a pause amid competing priorities. With only weeks remaining and positions entrenched, a sudden agreement would require rapid concessions not indicated in recent diplomatic statements. Late developments such as direct leader-level talks or major battlefield shifts could theoretically alter timelines, though historical patterns suggest limited scope for resolution before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$697,910End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 97.5% probability that Ukraine will not sign a comprehensive peace deal with Russia by June 30 because trilateral negotiations have remained stalled since early 2026, with no breakthrough on core issues such as territorial control and security guarantees. Russian officials have repeatedly rejected Ukrainian ceasefire proposals and insisted on recognition of seized areas, while temporary halts like the April Orthodox Easter pause quickly collapsed amid mutual violations. US-mediated efforts under the Trump administration, including a self-imposed June deadline, produced prisoner exchanges but no framework acceptable to both sides, and talks entered a pause amid competing priorities. With only weeks remaining and positions entrenched, a sudden agreement would require rapid concessions not indicated in recent diplomatic statements. Late developments such as direct leader-level talks or major battlefield shifts could theoretically alter timelines, though historical patterns suggest limited scope for resolution before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$697,910End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.5% probability that Ukraine will not sign a comprehensive peace deal with Russia by June 30 because trilateral negotiations have remained stalled since early 2026, with no breakthrough on core issues such as territorial control and security guarantees. Russian officials have repeatedly rejected Ukrainian ceasefire proposals and insisted on recognition of seized areas, while temporary halts like the April Orthodox Easter pause quickly collapsed amid mutual violations. US-mediated efforts under the Trump administration, including a self-imposed June deadline, produced prisoner exchanges but no framework acceptable to both sides, and talks entered a pause amid competing priorities. With only weeks remaining and positions entrenched, a sudden agreement would require rapid concessions not indicated in recent diplomatic statements. Late developments such as direct leader-level talks or major battlefield shifts could theoretically alter timelines, though historical patterns suggest limited scope for resolution before the cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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