Stalled formal negotiations since early 2026 explain the 97% trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30. U.S.-mediated sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced no breakthroughs before attention shifted to Middle East operations, leaving core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and sovereignty unresolved. Hostilities continue along the front lines with no recent high-level announcements or resumed talks indicating momentum. The narrow window to deadline further limits scope for rapid diplomatic progress. Late developments such as direct leader engagement or sudden concessions could still shift outcomes before June 30, though historical patterns of prolonged talks suggest these remain low-probability catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$697,792 Vol.
$697,792 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$697,792 Vol.
$697,792 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Stalled formal negotiations since early 2026 explain the 97% trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30. U.S.-mediated sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced no breakthroughs before attention shifted to Middle East operations, leaving core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and sovereignty unresolved. Hostilities continue along the front lines with no recent high-level announcements or resumed talks indicating momentum. The narrow window to deadline further limits scope for rapid diplomatic progress. Late developments such as direct leader engagement or sudden concessions could still shift outcomes before June 30, though historical patterns of prolonged talks suggest these remain low-probability catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volumen
$697,792Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Stalled formal negotiations since early 2026 explain the 97% trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30. U.S.-mediated sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced no breakthroughs before attention shifted to Middle East operations, leaving core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and sovereignty unresolved. Hostilities continue along the front lines with no recent high-level announcements or resumed talks indicating momentum. The narrow window to deadline further limits scope for rapid diplomatic progress. Late developments such as direct leader engagement or sudden concessions could still shift outcomes before June 30, though historical patterns of prolonged talks suggest these remain low-probability catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$697,910Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stalled formal negotiations since early 2026 explain the 97% trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30. U.S.-mediated sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced no breakthroughs before attention shifted to Middle East operations, leaving core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and sovereignty unresolved. Hostilities continue along the front lines with no recent high-level announcements or resumed talks indicating momentum. The narrow window to deadline further limits scope for rapid diplomatic progress. Late developments such as direct leader engagement or sudden concessions could still shift outcomes before June 30, though historical patterns of prolonged talks suggest these remain low-probability catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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