Trader consensus prices a 94.5% chance against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by June 30, driven by stalled US-mediated negotiations despite a February deadline set by Washington. Recent diplomatic signals, including President Trump's call with Putin urging an end to the war and German Chancellor Merz's comments on potential territorial concessions, have not yielded breakthroughs, echoing Foreign Minister Lavrov's April 18 statement that Moscow sees no urgency to resume talks. Ongoing Russian drone and missile strikes, like the major April 16 barrage, and Ukraine's drone advantages signal persistent escalation over de-escalation. Bolstered NATO and EU aid packages totaling over $150 billion for 2026 further entrench Kyiv's resistance to Russia's demands for annexed territories, with a late trilateral summit as the main wildcard.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$105,327 Vol.
$105,327 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$105,327 Vol.
$105,327 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 94.5% chance against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by June 30, driven by stalled US-mediated negotiations despite a February deadline set by Washington. Recent diplomatic signals, including President Trump's call with Putin urging an end to the war and German Chancellor Merz's comments on potential territorial concessions, have not yielded breakthroughs, echoing Foreign Minister Lavrov's April 18 statement that Moscow sees no urgency to resume talks. Ongoing Russian drone and missile strikes, like the major April 16 barrage, and Ukraine's drone advantages signal persistent escalation over de-escalation. Bolstered NATO and EU aid packages totaling over $150 billion for 2026 further entrench Kyiv's resistance to Russia's demands for annexed territories, with a late trilateral summit as the main wildcard.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$105,327End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 94.5% chance against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by June 30, driven by stalled US-mediated negotiations despite a February deadline set by Washington. Recent diplomatic signals, including President Trump's call with Putin urging an end to the war and German Chancellor Merz's comments on potential territorial concessions, have not yielded breakthroughs, echoing Foreign Minister Lavrov's April 18 statement that Moscow sees no urgency to resume talks. Ongoing Russian drone and missile strikes, like the major April 16 barrage, and Ukraine's drone advantages signal persistent escalation over de-escalation. Bolstered NATO and EU aid packages totaling over $150 billion for 2026 further entrench Kyiv's resistance to Russia's demands for annexed territories, with a late trilateral summit as the main wildcard.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$105,329End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 94.5% chance against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by June 30, driven by stalled US-mediated negotiations despite a February deadline set by Washington. Recent diplomatic signals, including President Trump's call with Putin urging an end to the war and German Chancellor Merz's comments on potential territorial concessions, have not yielded breakthroughs, echoing Foreign Minister Lavrov's April 18 statement that Moscow sees no urgency to resume talks. Ongoing Russian drone and missile strikes, like the major April 16 barrage, and Ukraine's drone advantages signal persistent escalation over de-escalation. Bolstered NATO and EU aid packages totaling over $150 billion for 2026 further entrench Kyiv's resistance to Russia's demands for annexed territories, with a late trilateral summit as the main wildcard.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions