A U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9-11 expired on May 11 amid mutual accusations of violations, including drone strikes, airstrikes, and ground assaults, highlighting persistent military tensions despite a 1,000-prisoner swap per side. President Trump's announcement followed competing unilateral pauses earlier in May, but core disputes over territorial control in Donbas, security guarantees, and NATO remain unresolved, stalling broader peace talks. Russian President Putin recently suggested the conflict is "coming to an end" while aides emphasized negotiations are distant; Ukrainian reports detail continued Russian offensives. No substantive diplomatic summits are scheduled, leaving trader sentiment focused on U.S. mediation potential versus entrenched hostilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
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$193,057 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
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December 31
44%
$193,057 Vol.
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$67,875 Vol.
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.A U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9-11 expired on May 11 amid mutual accusations of violations, including drone strikes, airstrikes, and ground assaults, highlighting persistent military tensions despite a 1,000-prisoner swap per side. President Trump's announcement followed competing unilateral pauses earlier in May, but core disputes over territorial control in Donbas, security guarantees, and NATO remain unresolved, stalling broader peace talks. Russian President Putin recently suggested the conflict is "coming to an end" while aides emphasized negotiations are distant; Ukrainian reports detail continued Russian offensives. No substantive diplomatic summits are scheduled, leaving trader sentiment focused on U.S. mediation potential versus entrenched hostilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volume
$193,057End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.A U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9-11 expired on May 11 amid mutual accusations of violations, including drone strikes, airstrikes, and ground assaults, highlighting persistent military tensions despite a 1,000-prisoner swap per side. President Trump's announcement followed competing unilateral pauses earlier in May, but core disputes over territorial control in Donbas, security guarantees, and NATO remain unresolved, stalling broader peace talks. Russian President Putin recently suggested the conflict is "coming to an end" while aides emphasized negotiations are distant; Ukrainian reports detail continued Russian offensives. No substantive diplomatic summits are scheduled, leaving trader sentiment focused on U.S. mediation potential versus entrenched hostilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$193,057End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9-11 expired on May 11 amid mutual accusations of violations, including drone strikes, airstrikes, and ground assaults, highlighting persistent military tensions despite a 1,000-prisoner swap per side. President Trump's announcement followed competing unilateral pauses earlier in May, but core disputes over territorial control in Donbas, security guarantees, and NATO remain unresolved, stalling broader peace talks. Russian President Putin recently suggested the conflict is "coming to an end" while aides emphasized negotiations are distant; Ukrainian reports detail continued Russian offensives. No substantive diplomatic summits are scheduled, leaving trader sentiment focused on U.S. mediation potential versus entrenched hostilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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