Ongoing US-Israel strikes and Iranian responses have locked the Israel-Iran conflict into a frozen "no war, no peace" stalemate, with trader consensus pricing a permanent peace deal by April 30 at under 1% implied probability. Iranian army officials stated two days ago the country remains in a "war situation" amid unresolved Strait of Hormuz tensions, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's April 27 meeting with Putin in Russia signals Tehran's pivot to Moscow for support, stalling Oman- and Pakistan-mediated diplomacy. No direct Israel-Iran negotiations exist; US-Iran nuclear talks collapsed after Trump's February deadline, and recent Lebanon-Hezbollah ceasefire excludes broader de-escalation. Absent late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs, structural barriers like mutual non-recognition and nuclear disputes make resolution improbable before deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$389,328 Vol.
May 31, 2026
April 30
<1%
June 30
8%
$389,328 Vol.
April 30
$159,122 Vol.
<1%
June 30
$73,540 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Israel strikes and Iranian responses have locked the Israel-Iran conflict into a frozen "no war, no peace" stalemate, with trader consensus pricing a permanent peace deal by April 30 at under 1% implied probability. Iranian army officials stated two days ago the country remains in a "war situation" amid unresolved Strait of Hormuz tensions, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's April 27 meeting with Putin in Russia signals Tehran's pivot to Moscow for support, stalling Oman- and Pakistan-mediated diplomacy. No direct Israel-Iran negotiations exist; US-Iran nuclear talks collapsed after Trump's February deadline, and recent Lebanon-Hezbollah ceasefire excludes broader de-escalation. Absent late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs, structural barriers like mutual non-recognition and nuclear disputes make resolution improbable before deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Volume
$389,328End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Israel strikes and Iranian responses have locked the Israel-Iran conflict into a frozen "no war, no peace" stalemate, with trader consensus pricing a permanent peace deal by April 30 at under 1% implied probability. Iranian army officials stated two days ago the country remains in a "war situation" amid unresolved Strait of Hormuz tensions, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's April 27 meeting with Putin in Russia signals Tehran's pivot to Moscow for support, stalling Oman- and Pakistan-mediated diplomacy. No direct Israel-Iran negotiations exist; US-Iran nuclear talks collapsed after Trump's February deadline, and recent Lebanon-Hezbollah ceasefire excludes broader de-escalation. Absent late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs, structural barriers like mutual non-recognition and nuclear disputes make resolution improbable before deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$389,328End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Israel strikes and Iranian responses have locked the Israel-Iran conflict into a frozen "no war, no peace" stalemate, with trader consensus pricing a permanent peace deal by April 30 at under 1% implied probability. Iranian army officials stated two days ago the country remains in a "war situation" amid unresolved Strait of Hormuz tensions, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's April 27 meeting with Putin in Russia signals Tehran's pivot to Moscow for support, stalling Oman- and Pakistan-mediated diplomacy. No direct Israel-Iran negotiations exist; US-Iran nuclear talks collapsed after Trump's February deadline, and recent Lebanon-Hezbollah ceasefire excludes broader de-escalation. Absent late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs, structural barriers like mutual non-recognition and nuclear disputes make resolution improbable before deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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