Ongoing diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran, centered on a draft agreement to end the 2026 conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and address Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missiles, represent the primary driver shaping prospects for any Israel-Iran permanent peace framework. Pakistan-mediated talks produced reports of a finalized text in mid-June 2026, though conflicting signals on signing timelines and terms persist. Israel continues strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, a key Iranian proxy, raising questions about whether any bilateral US-Iran accord would extend to all regional fronts. Fragile April ceasefire extensions, naval tensions, and Israeli priorities on enrichment limits and proxy support create structural barriers. Upcoming leadership reviews in Tehran and Washington, alongside potential further breaches, could shift trader assessments of timelines for broader de-escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$7,826,672 Vol.
30 jun 2026
30 de junio
12%
31 de julio
15%
$7,826,672 Vol.
30 de junio
$4,809,307 Vol.
12%
31 de julio
$1,792 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran, centered on a draft agreement to end the 2026 conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and address Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missiles, represent the primary driver shaping prospects for any Israel-Iran permanent peace framework. Pakistan-mediated talks produced reports of a finalized text in mid-June 2026, though conflicting signals on signing timelines and terms persist. Israel continues strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, a key Iranian proxy, raising questions about whether any bilateral US-Iran accord would extend to all regional fronts. Fragile April ceasefire extensions, naval tensions, and Israeli priorities on enrichment limits and proxy support create structural barriers. Upcoming leadership reviews in Tehran and Washington, alongside potential further breaches, could shift trader assessments of timelines for broader de-escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Volumen
$7,826,672Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran, centered on a draft agreement to end the 2026 conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and address Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missiles, represent the primary driver shaping prospects for any Israel-Iran permanent peace framework. Pakistan-mediated talks produced reports of a finalized text in mid-June 2026, though conflicting signals on signing timelines and terms persist. Israel continues strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, a key Iranian proxy, raising questions about whether any bilateral US-Iran accord would extend to all regional fronts. Fragile April ceasefire extensions, naval tensions, and Israeli priorities on enrichment limits and proxy support create structural barriers. Upcoming leadership reviews in Tehran and Washington, alongside potential further breaches, could shift trader assessments of timelines for broader de-escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$7,826,672Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran, centered on a draft agreement to end the 2026 conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and address Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missiles, represent the primary driver shaping prospects for any Israel-Iran permanent peace framework. Pakistan-mediated talks produced reports of a finalized text in mid-June 2026, though conflicting signals on signing timelines and terms persist. Israel continues strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, a key Iranian proxy, raising questions about whether any bilateral US-Iran accord would extend to all regional fronts. Fragile April ceasefire extensions, naval tensions, and Israeli priorities on enrichment limits and proxy support create structural barriers. Upcoming leadership reviews in Tehran and Washington, alongside potential further breaches, could shift trader assessments of timelines for broader de-escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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