A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, initiated April 16 and extended three weeks to mid-May, anchors trader consensus pricing withdrawal odds below 1% by April 30, 3% by May 31, and 10% by June 30, as it permits Israeli self-defense operations without mandating ground force pullout from southern Lebanon. Recent Israeli airstrikes on infrastructure and Hezbollah targets—killing nine yesterday despite truce claims—coupled with partial redeployment of the 162nd Division on April 27 but ongoing raids up to the "Yellow Line," underscore persistent security concerns over Hezbollah disarmament. Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam insists on full withdrawal as a negotiation precondition, with Washington talks eyeing permanent security pacts amid escalation risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
$445,831 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
April 30
<1%
May 31
3%
June 30
8%
$445,831 Vol.
April 30
$74,425 Vol.
<1%
May 31
$234,272 Vol.
3%
June 30
$137,384 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, initiated April 16 and extended three weeks to mid-May, anchors trader consensus pricing withdrawal odds below 1% by April 30, 3% by May 31, and 10% by June 30, as it permits Israeli self-defense operations without mandating ground force pullout from southern Lebanon. Recent Israeli airstrikes on infrastructure and Hezbollah targets—killing nine yesterday despite truce claims—coupled with partial redeployment of the 162nd Division on April 27 but ongoing raids up to the "Yellow Line," underscore persistent security concerns over Hezbollah disarmament. Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam insists on full withdrawal as a negotiation precondition, with Washington talks eyeing permanent security pacts amid escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$445,831End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, initiated April 16 and extended three weeks to mid-May, anchors trader consensus pricing withdrawal odds below 1% by April 30, 3% by May 31, and 10% by June 30, as it permits Israeli self-defense operations without mandating ground force pullout from southern Lebanon. Recent Israeli airstrikes on infrastructure and Hezbollah targets—killing nine yesterday despite truce claims—coupled with partial redeployment of the 162nd Division on April 27 but ongoing raids up to the "Yellow Line," underscore persistent security concerns over Hezbollah disarmament. Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam insists on full withdrawal as a negotiation precondition, with Washington talks eyeing permanent security pacts amid escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$445,831End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, initiated April 16 and extended three weeks to mid-May, anchors trader consensus pricing withdrawal odds below 1% by April 30, 3% by May 31, and 10% by June 30, as it permits Israeli self-defense operations without mandating ground force pullout from southern Lebanon. Recent Israeli airstrikes on infrastructure and Hezbollah targets—killing nine yesterday despite truce claims—coupled with partial redeployment of the 162nd Division on April 27 but ongoing raids up to the "Yellow Line," underscore persistent security concerns over Hezbollah disarmament. Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam insists on full withdrawal as a negotiation precondition, with Washington talks eyeing permanent security pacts amid escalation risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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