Diplomatic frictions have surfaced in several bilateral relationships since early 2025, including U.S. expulsion of South Africa’s envoy and subsequent calls in Pretoria for reciprocal action, alongside Lebanese and Canadian debates over U.S. ambassadors amid policy disagreements. Yet no foreign government has declared a sitting U.S. ambassador persona non grata in the past year. Governments have instead pursued calibrated responses—public statements, aid adjustments, or ambassador recalls—while preserving channels under the Vienna Convention framework. Historical patterns show expulsions remain infrequent even during strained periods, and current trader pricing reflects this baseline stability through year-end 2026 absent a major escalation trigger.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$16,863 Vol.
$16,863 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$16,863 Vol.
$16,863 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic frictions have surfaced in several bilateral relationships since early 2025, including U.S. expulsion of South Africa’s envoy and subsequent calls in Pretoria for reciprocal action, alongside Lebanese and Canadian debates over U.S. ambassadors amid policy disagreements. Yet no foreign government has declared a sitting U.S. ambassador persona non grata in the past year. Governments have instead pursued calibrated responses—public statements, aid adjustments, or ambassador recalls—while preserving channels under the Vienna Convention framework. Historical patterns show expulsions remain infrequent even during strained periods, and current trader pricing reflects this baseline stability through year-end 2026 absent a major escalation trigger.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$16,863End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic frictions have surfaced in several bilateral relationships since early 2025, including U.S. expulsion of South Africa’s envoy and subsequent calls in Pretoria for reciprocal action, alongside Lebanese and Canadian debates over U.S. ambassadors amid policy disagreements. Yet no foreign government has declared a sitting U.S. ambassador persona non grata in the past year. Governments have instead pursued calibrated responses—public statements, aid adjustments, or ambassador recalls—while preserving channels under the Vienna Convention framework. Historical patterns show expulsions remain infrequent even during strained periods, and current trader pricing reflects this baseline stability through year-end 2026 absent a major escalation trigger.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$16,863End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic frictions have surfaced in several bilateral relationships since early 2025, including U.S. expulsion of South Africa’s envoy and subsequent calls in Pretoria for reciprocal action, alongside Lebanese and Canadian debates over U.S. ambassadors amid policy disagreements. Yet no foreign government has declared a sitting U.S. ambassador persona non grata in the past year. Governments have instead pursued calibrated responses—public statements, aid adjustments, or ambassador recalls—while preserving channels under the Vienna Convention framework. Historical patterns show expulsions remain infrequent even during strained periods, and current trader pricing reflects this baseline stability through year-end 2026 absent a major escalation trigger.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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