Trader consensus prices "No" at 68%, reflecting the rarity of formal ambassador expulsions as a severe diplomatic escalation, with none occurring despite March 2026's U.S.-Iran conflict that prompted U.S. withdrawals of nonessential diplomats from Middle East posts like Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Iran's calls for Arab and European states to expel U.S. envoys in exchange for Strait of Hormuz passage went unheeded, as Gulf nations instead expelled Iranian diplomats. South Africa summoned but did not expel its U.S. ambassador over controversial remarks on a local chant, signaling restraint. Absent fresh triggers like further airstrikes or sanctions breakdowns through December 31, markets anticipate stable bilateral relations prevailing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$14,605 Vol.
$14,605 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$14,605 Vol.
$14,605 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 68%, reflecting the rarity of formal ambassador expulsions as a severe diplomatic escalation, with none occurring despite March 2026's U.S.-Iran conflict that prompted U.S. withdrawals of nonessential diplomats from Middle East posts like Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Iran's calls for Arab and European states to expel U.S. envoys in exchange for Strait of Hormuz passage went unheeded, as Gulf nations instead expelled Iranian diplomats. South Africa summoned but did not expel its U.S. ambassador over controversial remarks on a local chant, signaling restraint. Absent fresh triggers like further airstrikes or sanctions breakdowns through December 31, markets anticipate stable bilateral relations prevailing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$14,605End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 68%, reflecting the rarity of formal ambassador expulsions as a severe diplomatic escalation, with none occurring despite March 2026's U.S.-Iran conflict that prompted U.S. withdrawals of nonessential diplomats from Middle East posts like Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Iran's calls for Arab and European states to expel U.S. envoys in exchange for Strait of Hormuz passage went unheeded, as Gulf nations instead expelled Iranian diplomats. South Africa summoned but did not expel its U.S. ambassador over controversial remarks on a local chant, signaling restraint. Absent fresh triggers like further airstrikes or sanctions breakdowns through December 31, markets anticipate stable bilateral relations prevailing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$14,605End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 68%, reflecting the rarity of formal ambassador expulsions as a severe diplomatic escalation, with none occurring despite March 2026's U.S.-Iran conflict that prompted U.S. withdrawals of nonessential diplomats from Middle East posts like Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Iran's calls for Arab and European states to expel U.S. envoys in exchange for Strait of Hormuz passage went unheeded, as Gulf nations instead expelled Iranian diplomats. South Africa summoned but did not expel its U.S. ambassador over controversial remarks on a local chant, signaling restraint. Absent fresh triggers like further airstrikes or sanctions breakdowns through December 31, markets anticipate stable bilateral relations prevailing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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