Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% for an Alberta independence referendum in 2026, reflecting significant legal and procedural barriers amid stalled citizen initiative efforts. On April 10, a judge granted a temporary stay halting signature validation for Stay Free Alberta's petition, which claimed to exceed the 177,732-signature threshold, following challenges from First Nations citing treaty rights and constitutionality under the Citizen Initiative Act. Premier Danielle Smith's separate October 19 referendum focuses on nine immigration and policy questions, not separation, with no firm commitment to hold an independence vote even if signatures validate. Recent polls, including a CBC survey on April 28, show separatism support flat around 27-30%, with a solid majority opposed, underscoring uncertain prospects despite rural enthusiasm.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$68,636 Vol.
$68,636 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$68,636 Vol.
$68,636 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% for an Alberta independence referendum in 2026, reflecting significant legal and procedural barriers amid stalled citizen initiative efforts. On April 10, a judge granted a temporary stay halting signature validation for Stay Free Alberta's petition, which claimed to exceed the 177,732-signature threshold, following challenges from First Nations citing treaty rights and constitutionality under the Citizen Initiative Act. Premier Danielle Smith's separate October 19 referendum focuses on nine immigration and policy questions, not separation, with no firm commitment to hold an independence vote even if signatures validate. Recent polls, including a CBC survey on April 28, show separatism support flat around 27-30%, with a solid majority opposed, underscoring uncertain prospects despite rural enthusiasm.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volume
$68,636End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% for an Alberta independence referendum in 2026, reflecting significant legal and procedural barriers amid stalled citizen initiative efforts. On April 10, a judge granted a temporary stay halting signature validation for Stay Free Alberta's petition, which claimed to exceed the 177,732-signature threshold, following challenges from First Nations citing treaty rights and constitutionality under the Citizen Initiative Act. Premier Danielle Smith's separate October 19 referendum focuses on nine immigration and policy questions, not separation, with no firm commitment to hold an independence vote even if signatures validate. Recent polls, including a CBC survey on April 28, show separatism support flat around 27-30%, with a solid majority opposed, underscoring uncertain prospects despite rural enthusiasm.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$68,636End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% for an Alberta independence referendum in 2026, reflecting significant legal and procedural barriers amid stalled citizen initiative efforts. On April 10, a judge granted a temporary stay halting signature validation for Stay Free Alberta's petition, which claimed to exceed the 177,732-signature threshold, following challenges from First Nations citing treaty rights and constitutionality under the Citizen Initiative Act. Premier Danielle Smith's separate October 19 referendum focuses on nine immigration and policy questions, not separation, with no firm commitment to hold an independence vote even if signatures validate. Recent polls, including a CBC survey on April 28, show separatism support flat around 27-30%, with a solid majority opposed, underscoring uncertain prospects despite rural enthusiasm.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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