Matt Little's commanding first-ballot DFL endorsement at the May 2026 convention, secured with 63 percent delegate support, has anchored his frontrunner position ahead of the August 11 primary. The former state senator and Lakeville mayor benefits from strong fundraising parity with state Sen. Matt Klein and a broad base of party delegates in the open seat race created by Rep. Angie Craig's Senate bid. State Rep. Kaela Berg trails in both fundraising and convention backing, limiting her path despite continued participation. Trader consensus prices reflect the endorsement's typical carryover effect in Minnesota DFL primaries, though the competitive field and two-month runway to the vote leave room for shifts driven by additional polling or campaign developments.