Jimmy Patronis endorses Byron Donalds for Florida governor

Byron Donalds rises to 92%4%

U.S. Representative Jimmy Patronis endorsed Byron Donalds for governor, adding to Donalds' growing list of endorsements and consolidating support within the Republican Party ahead of the primary.

U.S. Rep. Jimmy Patronis endorses Byron Donalds for Florida governor

Byron Donalds rises to 92%4%

Jimmy Patronis, who shifted focus from governor race to congressional seat, publicly endorsed Byron Donalds, consolidating Republican support behind Donalds and boosting his frontrunner status.

Byron Donalds remains GOP favorite as rivals refuse to clear field

Byron Donalds rises to 91%3%

Despite challenges from rivals like Jay Collins and James Fishback, Byron Donalds maintained his position as the GOP frontrunner, supported by Trump's endorsement and record fundraising, keeping his market price high.

Jay Collins denies rumors of campaign exit, intensifies attacks on Byron Donalds

Jay Collins drops to 3%9%

Facing trailing poll numbers, Jay Collins denied rumors of dropping out of the race and launched a significant media campaign attacking frontrunner Byron Donalds, attempting to position himself as a viable alternative. Despite this, Donalds maintained a commanding lead in polls and fundraising.

Donalds remains GOP favorite as rivals refuse to clear field

Byron Donalds rises to 91%3%

Despite Donalds' strong position and fundraising advantage, rivals like Lt. Gov. Jay Collins continue their campaigns, but Donalds maintains his frontrunner status amid ongoing polling and campaign developments.

Jay Collins remains in Florida governor race despite Trump-backed Donalds' lead

Jay Collins dips to 3%2%

Despite Byron Donalds' strong lead and Trump's endorsement, Jay Collins refused to drop out of the race, maintaining his candidacy but failing to significantly close the gap in market support.

Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd endorses Byron Donalds for Florida governor

Byron Donalds rises to 88%3%

Sheriff Grady Judd endorsed Byron Donalds, praising his law-and-order stance and support for tough-on-crime policies. This endorsement from a respected law enforcement figure bolstered Donalds' appeal among conservative voters and reinforced his frontrunner status.

Florida House Republican Randy Maggard endorses Byron Donalds for governor

Byron Donalds rises to 91%3%

Endorsement from a key Florida House Republican leader added to Donalds' growing coalition of influential supporters, reinforcing his frontrunner status and market dominance.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis addresses rumors about Casey DeSantis running for governor

Casey DeSantis dips to 0%1%

Governor Ron DeSantis publicly addressed and downplayed speculation about his wife, Casey DeSantis, running for governor in 2026. This clarification contributed to the decline in market support for Casey DeSantis, whose price dropped to zero by June 2026.

Governor Ron DeSantis denies Casey DeSantis plans to run for governor

Casey DeSantis dips to 0%2%

Governor Ron DeSantis publicly addressed rumors about his wife Casey DeSantis running for governor, stating she has no interest in entering the race. This statement contributed to the decline in Casey DeSantis' market price to near zero.

Governor Ron DeSantis dismisses rumors of Casey DeSantis running for governor

Casey DeSantis dips to 0%2%

Governor Ron DeSantis publicly addressed and dismissed rumors that his wife, Casey DeSantis, would run for governor in 2026, stating she has no interest in running. This clarification likely contributed to the decline in market support for Casey DeSantis as a candidate.

Governor Ron DeSantis addresses rumors about Casey DeSantis running for governor

Casey DeSantis dips to 0%2%

Governor Ron DeSantis publicly addressed speculation about his wife Casey DeSantis running for governor, denying her interest in running and suggesting she has no enthusiasm for entering the political arena. This likely contributed to her market price dropping to zero.

Jimmy Patronis wins Republican nomination in special election to replace Matt Gaetz

Jimmy Patronis dips to 0%1%

Jimmy Patronis secured the Republican nomination for Florida's 1st Congressional District in a special primary, shifting his political focus from the gubernatorial race and effectively ending his campaign for governor, reflected in his market price dropping to zero.

Wilton Simpson files for reelection as Agriculture Commissioner, ending gubernatorial speculation

Wilton Simpson plunges to 0%42%

Wilton Simpson, previously considered a potential gubernatorial candidate, officially filed for reelection as Florida Agriculture Commissioner, signaling he would not run for governor and causing his market price to drop to zero.

Jay Collins’ market price slides to 5% after missing debate invitation

Collins was not invited to the televised GOP debate, signaling limited party support and pushing his price down to single digits.

Wilton Simpson files for reelection as Florida Agriculture Commissioner

Wilton Simpson plunges to 0%42%

Wilton Simpson officially filed for reelection as Agriculture Commissioner, ending speculation about a gubernatorial run and causing his market price to drop to zero.

Poll: Byron Donalds leads potential Democrat challengers for Florida governor

An Echelon Insights survey showed Byron Donalds leading potential Democratic challengers in the general election, reinforcing his strong position and appeal to voters. This positive polling likely supported his market price near the peak.

Poll shows Byron Donalds leading potential Democrat challengers for Florida governor

Byron Donalds rises to 87%1%

An April 2026 poll showed Byron Donalds leading against potential Democratic opponents, reinforcing his frontrunner status and likely contributing to sustained high market support.

Poll shows Byron Donalds leading potential Democratic challengers for Florida Governor

Byron Donalds rises to 87%1%

A survey by Echelon Insights showed Donalds leading Democrat challengers David Jolly and Jerry Demings, reinforcing his strong position ahead of the primary and general election.

Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor primary with 46% support

Byron Donalds rises to 88%2%

An Emerson College poll found Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary with 46% support among likely voters, confirming his frontrunner status and contributing to market confidence in his nomination.

Donalds holds early lead in Florida GOP governor primary

Polling and fundraising data showed Byron Donalds maintaining a clear lead in the Republican primary with 120 days to go before the election. Analysts noted that his messaging and organizing efforts in the coming months would be crucial to sustaining this advantage.

Poll shows Byron Donalds holding early lead in Florida GOP governor primary

Byron Donalds jumps to 88%6%

An Emerson College poll showed Donalds leading with 46% support among likely Republican primary voters, confirming his frontrunner status and contributing to sustained high market prices for his win.

Poll shows Byron Donalds holds early lead in Florida GOP governor primary

An Emerson College poll showed Donalds leading with 46% support among likely Republican primary voters, confirming his frontrunner status and contributing to sustained market confidence in his nomination.

Byron Donalds maintains clear lead in Florida GOP governor primary

Byron Donalds rises to 92%4%

Polls and political analysis in April 2026 showed Byron Donalds holding a clear lead in the Republican primary for Florida governor, with strong fundraising and endorsements contributing to his dominance. This sustained polling advantage supported his market price near peak levels.

Wilton Simpson Launches Re-Election Campaign for Agriculture Commissioner

Florida Agricultural Commissioner Wilton Simpson officially announced he would seek re-election to his current post, ending speculation of a gubernatorial run.

James Fishback’s poll numbers dip below 10% after fundraising reports

James Fishback dips to 9%3%

Fishback disclosed a modest $500,000 fundraising total, causing his market price to fall from 12% to 9% as donors shifted to Donalds.

James Fishback confronted over grooming allegations amid heated Florida governor race

James Fishback dips to 9%2%

James Fishback faced renewed scrutiny and public confrontation over allegations of a past relationship with a minor, which dominated media coverage and likely contributed to his declining support in the primary race.

Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd endorses Byron Donalds for Governor

Sheriff Grady Judd endorsed Byron Donalds, praising his law-and-order stance and support for tough-on-crime policies. This endorsement added to Donalds' broad coalition and reinforced his image as the law-and-order candidate.

Byron Donalds raises record $22.4 million in first quarter for Florida governor race

Byron Donalds jumps to 91%8%

Byron Donalds reported raising $22.4 million in the first quarter of 2026, more than four times the combined total of his major rivals, solidifying his frontrunner status and increasing market confidence.

Polls show Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor primary by wide margin

Byron Donalds jumps to 91%7%

Multiple polls, including Emerson College Polling, showed Byron Donalds with a commanding lead in the Republican primary, often doubling the support of his nearest rivals, confirming his frontrunner status and influencing market prices accordingly.

Wilton Simpson Launches Re-Election Campaign for Agriculture Commissioner

Wilton Simpson officially launched his re-election bid for Agriculture Commissioner, ending any lingering speculation of a run for governor.

Americans for Prosperity Action endorses Byron Donalds for Florida governor

Byron Donalds rises to 91%3%

Americans for Prosperity Action endorsed Byron Donalds, pledging to mobilize grassroots support for his campaign. This endorsement from a major conservative advocacy group further solidified Donalds' position as the Republican frontrunner in the gubernatorial primary.

Byron Donalds reports record $22.4 million fundraising haul for Florida governor race

Byron Donalds rises to 92%3%

Byron Donalds announced raising $22.4 million in the first quarter of 2026, significantly outpacing his rivals. This financial advantage underscored his frontrunner status and contributed to his market price increase.

Byron Donalds dominates Florida GOP gubernatorial race

Byron Donalds rises to 87%3%

Byron Donalds' campaign dominance was highlighted by his fundraising, endorsements, and polling leads, making him the clear frontrunner in the Republican primary. His opponents struggled to gain traction amid his strong position.

Emerson College poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP gubernatorial primary with 46% support

Byron Donalds rises to 88%2%

A poll by Emerson College found Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary with 46% support, far ahead of other candidates, reinforcing his dominant position in the race.

Florida Governor signs law allowing state to designate organizations as domestic terrorists

Governor Ron DeSantis signed HB 1471 into law, empowering Florida to designate national organizations as domestic terrorists and restricting their influence in state institutions. This legislative action underscored the state's conservative policy direction under DeSantis' administration during the election year, reinforcing the political environment for the Republican primary.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signs law allowing state to designate organizations as domestic terrorists

Governor DeSantis signed HB 1471, empowering Florida to designate organizations as domestic terrorists, a significant policy move reflecting the state's conservative agenda. While not directly affecting the primary candidates, it underscored the political environment shaping the race.

44 candidates in 2026 Florida gubernatorial race

The race expanded to 44 candidates, reflecting a highly fragmented field with multiple contenders vying for the Republican nomination.

James Fishback confronted over alleged grooming of a minor

James Fishback dips to 9%1%

Allegations resurfaced accusing James Fishback of a romantic relationship with a 17-year-old participant in his nonprofit debate organization, leading to public confrontations and media scrutiny. This controversy negatively impacted his campaign and market support.

James Fishback confronted publicly over alleged grooming of a minor

Fishback faced viral public confrontation and debate over longstanding allegations of a relationship with a minor, intensifying scrutiny and controversy around his campaign.

Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor primary by wide margin

Byron Donalds jumps to 91%8%

An Emerson College Polling survey confirmed Byron Donalds as the clear favorite in the Republican primary, with 46% support, far ahead of other candidates including Jay Collins and James Fishback. The poll highlighted Donalds' strong support among older voters and the impact of Trump's endorsement on his lead.

Emerson College poll confirms Byron Donalds as clear GOP frontrunner

Byron Donalds rises to 92%4%

A poll by Emerson College showed Byron Donalds with 46% support among likely Republican primary voters, well ahead of other candidates, confirming his dominant position in the race.

Byron Donalds’ campaign announces record $22.2 million fundraising haul in Q1 2026

Byron Donalds jumps to 90%8%

Donalds’ campaign reported raising $22.2 million in the first quarter of 2026, further solidifying his financial advantage and front-runner position in the Republican primary, which was reflected in a price increase in the market.

Byron Donalds hits peak market support amid Florida GOP primary race

Byron Donalds jumps to 93%11%

Byron Donalds reached a peak market price of 93%, reflecting strong confidence in his likelihood to win the Republican primary for Florida governor as other candidates' support waned.

Byron Donalds' campaign gains momentum with increased media coverage and endorsements

Byron Donalds jumps to 93%11%

Byron Donalds' campaign received increased media attention and endorsements from key Republican figures, solidifying his position as the frontrunner in the Florida Republican gubernatorial primary. This led to a peak in his market probability around early April 2026.

Byron Donalds peaks at 93% after winning key endorsement from Florida Senate President

Byron Donalds jumps to 93%5%

The Florida Senate President publicly endorsed Donalds, creating a brief market peak to 93% before a modest pullback, while all other candidates fell to near‑zero.

Byron Donalds raises record $22.2 million in first quarter for governor campaign

Byron Donalds jumps to 89%6%

Donalds' campaign announced a record-breaking fundraising haul of $22.2 million in Q1 2026, demonstrating strong financial support and reinforcing his frontrunner position in the GOP primary.

Byron Donalds’ campaign raises record $22.2 million in first quarter

Byron Donalds jumps to 90%6%

Byron Donalds announced a record-breaking fundraising haul of $22.2 million in Q1 2026, significantly boosting his campaign resources. This financial strength reinforced his frontrunner status and enabled expanded voter outreach and advertising efforts ahead of the primary.

Byron Donalds raises $22.2 million in Q1 2026 for governor campaign

Byron Donalds jumps to 90%7%

Donalds' campaign announced a record-breaking $22.2 million fundraising haul in Q1 2026, further demonstrating his strong campaign infrastructure and solidifying his dominant position in the race.

Byron Donalds reports record $22.2 million fundraising quarter

Byron Donalds jumps to 93%10%

Byron Donalds announced raising $22.2 million in the first quarter of 2026, a record haul that further solidified his frontrunner status in the Republican primary. This financial advantage reinforced market confidence, pushing his price to a peak of 93%.

Emerson College poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor race with 46% support

Byron Donalds jumps to 89%6%

A poll by Emerson College confirmed Byron Donalds as the clear favorite in the Republican primary with 46% support, far ahead of other candidates. This reinforced his frontrunner status and was reflected in market prices, solidifying his dominant position.

Emerson Poll Shows Byron Donalds Leading GOP Primary by 42 Points

Byron Donalds rises to 92%4%

A new Emerson College poll showed Byron Donalds with a massive lead at 46% support, while rivals Jay Collins and James Fishback trailed at just 4% each.

Byron Donalds raises $22.4 million in first quarter, dominating fundraising

Byron Donalds rises to 88%4%

Byron Donalds reported a record-breaking $22.4 million fundraising haul in Q1 2026, far surpassing all other Republican gubernatorial candidates combined, reinforcing his frontrunner status and market price increase.

Byron Donalds reports record $22.4 million fundraising quarter

Byron Donalds rises to 88%4%

Donalds raised a record-breaking $22.4 million in Q1 2026, more than four times the combined total of his rivals, solidifying his frontrunner status and increasing market confidence in his nomination chances.

Byron Donalds Posts Record $22 Million Q1 Fundraising Haul

Byron Donalds jumps to 92%9%

Byron Donalds shattered fundraising records by raising over $22 million in the first quarter of 2026, cementing his status as the financial juggernaut of the race.

Gov. Ron DeSantis calls special session to redraw Florida congressional districts

Governor DeSantis called a special legislative session in April 2026 to redraw congressional districts, intensifying GOP infighting and political maneuvering in Florida. While this affected the broader political landscape, it had limited direct impact on the gubernatorial primary market.

Byron Donalds Raises Record $22.2 Million in First Quarter

Byron Donalds jumps to 87%5%

Byron Donalds' campaign announced a record-breaking $22.2 million fundraising haul for the first quarter of 2026, solidifying his financial dominance in the race.

Emerson Poll Shows Byron Donalds Dominating GOP Primary Field

Byron Donalds jumps to 92%9%

An Emerson College poll conducted in late March showed Byron Donalds holding a massive lead with 46% support, while rivals Collins and Fishback sat at just 4%.

Emerson College Poll shows Byron Donalds as clear GOP frontrunner

Byron Donalds jumps to 84%6%

An Emerson College poll found Donalds with 46% support among likely Republican primary voters, far ahead of other candidates, reinforcing his dominant position and boosting market confidence.

Emerson College Poll Confirms Byron Donalds as Clear Favorite

Byron Donalds jumps to 87%5%

An Emerson College poll showed Byron Donalds holding a massive lead with 46% support among likely Republican primary voters, while his rivals remained in single digits.

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins enters 2026 governor race against Trump-backed rival

Jay Collins, Florida's Lieutenant Governor and a key ally of Governor DeSantis, announced his candidacy for governor, entering the Republican primary against Trump-backed Byron Donalds. Collins' entry introduced a significant challenger, causing some market volatility and a temporary increase in his market price.

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins enters 2026 governor race against Trump-backed rival

Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%

Jay Collins, Florida's lieutenant governor and a key ally of Gov. Ron DeSantis, announced his candidacy for governor, entering the Republican primary against Trump-backed Byron Donalds. Collins' entry initially caused some market interest but did not significantly challenge Donalds' lead, as reflected by his price declining to 3% by May 2026.

Byron Donalds hits 87% price after DeSantis hints at endorsement

Byron Donalds jumps to 87%5%

Governor Ron DeSantis said he would consider endorsing a candidate but did not name anyone; market inferred likely support for Donalds, sending his price to 87% and further marginalizing others.

James Fishback claims banned from Waffle House during campaign tour

James Fishback drops to 11%6%

James Fishback publicly stated he was banned from all Waffle House locations in Florida, a campaign setback that attracted media attention and may have impacted his public image and support in the primary race.

Waffle House bans James Fishback from Florida locations

James Fishback dips to 7%4%

James Fishback announced that Waffle House revoked permission for his campaign to visit their Florida locations, citing a ban. This unusual campaign setback received media coverage and likely contributed to a decline in his market price.

James Fishback banned from all Florida Waffle House locations

James Fishback drops to 9%8%

James Fishback claimed he was banned and criminally trespassed from all Waffle House locations in Florida, disrupting his campaign strategy to visit every location. This negative publicity likely contributed to his declining market support.

James Fishback banned from Waffle House locations during campaign tour

James Fishback dips to 11%1%

James Fishback, a Republican gubernatorial candidate, announced he was banned from all Waffle House restaurants in Florida after attempting to visit locations as part of his campaign tour. This incident attracted media attention but did not translate into significant polling gains, with his market support remaining low.

James Fishback Claims Waffle House Banned Him From Campaigning

Gubernatorial candidate James Fishback announced that Waffle House abruptly revoked permission for his statewide tour, complicating his grassroots outreach efforts.

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor against Trump-backed Donalds

Jay Collins plunges to 11%31%

Jay Collins, Florida's lieutenant governor, entered the Republican primary, challenging frontrunner Byron Donalds. Collins' entry introduced competition but did not significantly dent Donalds' lead, reflected in modest market price changes.

Polls show Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor primary by wide margin

Byron Donalds jumps to 89%9%

Multiple polls in early 2026 consistently showed Byron Donalds with a commanding lead in the Republican primary, supported by strong fundraising and Trump's endorsement. This solidified his frontrunner status and was reflected in market price increases.

Byron Donalds raises record $45 million in 2025 for Florida governor campaign

Byron Donalds jumps to 82%9%

Donalds shattered Florida fundraising records by raising $45 million in 2025, significantly outpacing previous candidates and solidifying his frontrunner status. This unprecedented fundraising haul increased market confidence in his nomination prospects.

James Fishback gains attention with Gen-Z Republican voters despite low overall support

James Fishback plunges to 16%27%

Fishback's campaign focused on younger Republican voters, polling at 32% among ages 18-32, but remained a long shot overall, limiting his impact on the broader primary race.

James Fishback gains attention among young Republican voters in Florida

James Fishback dips to 15%3%

James Fishback's campaign made inroads with younger Republican voters, polling at 32% among ages 18-32, though overall support remained low, causing a temporary market interest in his candidacy.

Byron Donalds maintains strong lead in Florida GOP gubernatorial primary market

Byron Donalds rises to 81%2%

Byron Donalds' market price remained high following his early announcement and Trump's endorsement, solidifying his position as the frontrunner in the Republican primary.

Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid continues to solidify

Byron Donalds rises to 81%3%

Byron Donalds' campaign maintained its momentum as the primary frontrunner, with his market price rising steadily throughout the period.

Rep. Byron Donalds announces run for Florida governor with Trump endorsement

Byron Donalds surges to 82%34%

Byron Donalds, a staunch Trump ally, announced his candidacy for Florida governor and received immediate backing from former President Donald Trump. This endorsement significantly boosted Donalds' standing in the Republican primary market, reflected in a sharp price increase from 48% to over 80% in the following weeks.

Byron Donalds announces candidacy for Florida governor with Trump endorsement

Byron Donalds surges to 67%19%

Byron Donalds, U.S. Representative, announced his run for Florida governor and quickly received endorsement from former President Donald Trump. This endorsement and his fundraising prowess propelled him to frontrunner status, reflected in a sharp rise in market support.

Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor race

Byron Donalds jumps to 92%12%

A University of North Florida poll showed Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary with 28% support, ahead of Casey DeSantis and James Fishback. The poll reinforced Donalds' frontrunner status and contributed to his market price increase.

Byron Donalds officially announces run for Florida governor with Trump endorsement

Byron Donalds, a staunch Trump ally and U.S. Representative, announced his candidacy for Florida governor, immediately receiving President Donald Trump's endorsement. This endorsement significantly boosted Donalds' perceived chances in the Republican primary, reflected in a sharp price increase in the prediction market.

Poll shows Trump endorsement boosts Byron Donalds' support

Byron Donalds jumps to 79%12%

A University of North Florida poll revealed that informing GOP voters of Donald Trump's endorsement of Byron Donalds increased his support from 28% to 47%, while Casey DeSantis' support dropped. The poll underscored the significant impact of Trump's backing on Donalds' frontrunner status.

UNF Poll Shows Byron Donalds Leading GOP Primary Field

Byron Donalds rises to 81%1%

A poll from the University of North Florida showed Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary field, with his support surging further when voters were informed of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Byron Donalds leads Florida governor race fundraising with record haul

Byron Donalds jumps to 87%8%

Byron Donalds raised $22.4 million in the first quarter of 2026, a record for a non-incumbent candidate in Florida, solidifying his dominant position in the Republican primary. This fundraising success reinforced market confidence in his likelihood to win the nomination.

National Governors Association meeting disrupted by Trump excluding Democrats

The annual governors' meeting in Washington was upended after President Trump excluded Democratic governors from White House events, highlighting partisan tensions that may influence Republican primaries including Florida's.

James Fishback Faces Eligibility Questions Over D.C. Homestead Claim

James Fishback dips to 11%4%

A newly revealed property tax bill showed James Fishback claimed a homestead deduction in Washington, D.C., raising doubts about his Florida residency eligibility.

Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor primary by wide margin

Byron Donalds jumps to 78%11%

A Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll showed Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary with 39% to 45% support in various scenarios, boosted by President Trump's endorsement, solidifying his frontrunner status and impacting market prices.

Byron Donalds reaches 81% market price after fundraising surge

Byron Donalds rises to 81%3%

Donald’s campaign reported a $15 million fundraising haul, reinforcing his frontrunner status and pushing his market price to a new high.

James Fishback alleges arson attack at his home

James Fishback drops to 11%6%

Authorities responded to a fire at James Fishback’s home, which he alleged was an arson attack intended as political intimidation. This incident brought media attention but also increased scrutiny and controversy around Fishback's campaign, contributing to a decline in his market support.

Speculation about Casey DeSantis running for governor intensifies but she denies plans

Casey DeSantis plunges to 1%40%

Amid speculation fueled by polls showing some support for Casey DeSantis, Florida's First Lady publicly denied any intention to run for governor in 2026. This clarification tempered market expectations and contributed to her declining support in the primary race.

James Fishback alleges arson attack at his Madison County home

James Fishback dips to 14%3%

James Fishback's campaign faced a setback when authorities responded to a fire at his home, which he alleged was an act of political intimidation. This incident contributed to volatility and negative media attention around his campaign, impacting his market support negatively.

Arson attack allegedly targets James Fishback's home

James Fishback drops to 10%6%

James Fishback's campaign reported an alleged arson attack on his home, which he publicly condemned and used to rally support. The incident highlighted the contentious nature of the race and may have contributed to volatility and decline in Fishback's market price.

James Fishback Alleges Arson Attack at His Madison Home

James Fishback rises to 16%4%

GOP candidate James Fishback claimed that an intentional fire was set in his yard, though local law enforcement did not open a criminal investigation.

Florida Bar drops disciplinary investigation into Matt Gaetz

Matt Gaetz plunges to 1%40%

The Florida Bar decided not to pursue disciplinary action against Matt Gaetz despite a congressional report alleging serious misconduct. This development diminished Gaetz's political viability and contributed to his market price collapse.

Florida Bar drops disciplinary investigation against Matt Gaetz

Matt Gaetz plunges to 0%41%

The Florida Bar abandoned its disciplinary investigation into Matt Gaetz despite a congressional report alleging serious misconduct. This development diminished Gaetz's political viability and contributed to his market price falling to zero.

James Fishback publicly splits with DeSantis advisor Christina Pushaw

Fishback distanced himself from a key DeSantis advisor, signaling internal campaign challenges and possibly contributing to his declining support in the primary race.

Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd endorses Byron Donalds for Governor

Byron Donalds rises to 86%4%

Sheriff Grady Judd endorsed Byron Donalds, praising his law-and-order stance and support for tough-on-crime policies. This endorsement added to Donalds' growing support among Republican voters and reinforced his frontrunner position.

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor against Trump-backed Donalds

Jay Collins plunges to 12%30%

Jay Collins entered the Republican primary, challenging frontrunner Byron Donalds. Collins' entry introduced competition but did not significantly dent Donalds' lead in the market.

Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces bid for Florida governor

Jay Collins plunges to 11%31%

Jay Collins, appointed lieutenant governor by Ron DeSantis, announced his candidacy for governor, entering the Republican primary as a DeSantis ally. Despite initial support, Collins struggled to gain traction against Donalds, reflected in his declining market price.

Byron Donalds campaign labels Jay Collins an anti-Trump RINO

Byron Donalds rises to 85%3%

Following Jay Collins' entry into the race, Byron Donalds' campaign quickly responded by branding Collins as an anti-Trump RINO, aiming to consolidate Trump-aligned Republican voters and maintain Donalds' frontrunner status.

Jay Collins announces candidacy for Florida governor

Florida Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins announced his run for governor, entering the crowded Republican primary and challenging frontrunner Byron Donalds. His entry added competition but did not significantly dent Donalds' lead.

Jay Collins announces run for Florida governor

Jay Collins plunges to 7%35%

Florida Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins announced his candidacy for governor, entering the Republican primary and challenging frontrunner Byron Donalds. Collins emphasized his military service and leadership experience but remained behind Donalds in polling and fundraising.

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor

Jay Collins, appointed lieutenant governor in 2025 and a former Green Beret, officially entered the Republican primary, positioning himself as a military leadership candidate and ally of Governor DeSantis, adding competition to the race.

Florida Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins Enters Gubernatorial Race

Jay Collins jumps to 8%5%

Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins formally announced his candidacy for governor, setting up a primary clash against Trump-backed Byron Donalds.

Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins Enters Florida Gubernatorial Race

Jay Collins rises to 6%2%

Florida Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins officially announced his candidacy for governor, setting up a high-stakes primary challenge against Trump-backed Byron Donalds.

Byron Donalds leads Florida GOP governor primary in early polls

Byron Donalds surges to 67%19%

Polls showed Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary with significant margins, boosted by President Trump's endorsement, which increased his support substantially compared to other candidates like Jay Collins and James Fishback.

Jay Collins officially launches campaign for Florida governor

Jay Collins surges to 42%30%

Jay Collins formally announced his gubernatorial campaign, emphasizing his military leadership and alignment with DeSantis policies. His campaign fundraising and visibility increased, but he remained behind frontrunner Donalds in polls and market prices.

Mason-Dixon poll confirms Byron Donalds leads Florida GOP governor primary

Byron Donalds jumps to 82%11%

Mason-Dixon polling showed Donalds with 37% support among Republican voters, maintaining his lead and reinforcing his frontrunner position in the primary race.

Tucker Carlson Endorses James Fishback on Podcast

James Fishback rises to 12%4%

James Fishback appeared on Tucker Carlson's podcast, where Carlson endorsed his long-shot gubernatorial campaign, providing a brief boost to his visibility.

Matt Gaetz considers run for Florida governor amid ethics investigation

Matt Gaetz plunges to 1%40%

Former Congressman Matt Gaetz publicly stated he was "starting to think about" running for Florida governor in 2026 despite ongoing ethics investigations and controversies. This announcement briefly increased his market presence, but his price eventually declined to zero due to lack of significant campaign momentum.

Matt Gaetz hints at potential run for Florida governor amid ethics investigation

Matt Gaetz plunges to 1%40%

Former Congressman Matt Gaetz publicly indicated he was considering a gubernatorial run despite ongoing ethics investigations and controversies, initially raising his profile in the race before his resignation from Congress and subsequent political shifts reduced his viability.

Matt Gaetz hints at Florida governor run after Congress exit

Matt Gaetz plunges to 1%40%

Former Congressman Matt Gaetz publicly stated he was "starting to think about" running for Florida governor in 2026, raising his profile as a potential candidate despite ongoing controversies and investigations. This announcement initially raised his market price but failed to sustain momentum.

Matt Gaetz Announces He Is Considering Run for Florida Governor

Former Congressman Matt Gaetz announced he was starting to think about running for governor, though his odds remained flat as he did not officially file.

Matt Gaetz publicly considers run for Florida governor

After resigning from Congress and withdrawing from the Attorney General nomination, Matt Gaetz publicly stated he was "starting to think about" running for Florida governor in 2026. Despite this, his market support remained low due to ongoing controversies and investigations.

Matt Gaetz hints at considering Florida governor run

Matt Gaetz plunges to 1%40%

Former Congressman Matt Gaetz publicly stated he was "starting to think about" running for Florida governor in 2026, sparking speculation about his potential candidacy. This announcement caused some market interest but did not translate into significant support.

Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor primary by double digits

Byron Donalds surges to 67%19%

A Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll showed Donalds leading with 39% support in a four-way race, significantly ahead of other candidates, boosted by awareness of Trump's endorsement.

Byron Donalds sets Florida fundraising record with $45 million raised in 2025

Byron Donalds rises to 84%2%

Byron Donalds raised a record-breaking $45 million in 2025 for his gubernatorial campaign, surpassing previous fundraising records and solidifying his position as the GOP frontrunner in Florida.

Byron Donalds raises $45 million in 2025 for Florida governor campaign

Byron Donalds jumps to 82%11%

Donalds' campaign reported raising $45 million over 2025, including $13.1 million in Q4, setting a fundraising record for Florida gubernatorial campaigns. This financial strength solidified his frontrunner status and contributed to his market price increase.

Florida GOP hosts candidate forum; Donalds dominates headlines

Byron Donalds rises to 82%1%

During a televised GOP forum, Donalds outperformed rivals in a Q&A session, leading to a price jump from 81% to 82% as market participants interpreted his strong showing as a sign of inevitable nomination.

Allegations surface against James Fishback regarding relationship with minor

James Fishback plunges to 25%18%

Serious allegations emerged against Republican candidate James Fishback concerning a past relationship with a minor, leading to negative media coverage and public scrutiny. This controversy contributed to a significant decline in Fishback's market support.

James Fishback makes controversial racial remarks against Byron Donalds

James Fishback drops to 16%9%

Fishback made racially charged attacks against Byron Donalds, including calling him a 'slave,' which alienated voters and party members, contributing to a steep drop in his market price.

House Ethics Committee report accuses Matt Gaetz of misconduct

Matt Gaetz plunges to 1%40%

The House Ethics Committee released a report accusing Matt Gaetz of paying women for sexual favors and drug use, including allegations involving a minor. Despite the controversy, Gaetz denied wrongdoing and later resigned from Congress, impacting his viability as a gubernatorial candidate and causing his market price to drop.

Byron Donalds receives endorsement from Americans for Prosperity Action

Byron Donalds jumps to 79%8%

Byron Donalds gained a significant endorsement from Americans for Prosperity Action, which pledged grassroots support and voter mobilization, strengthening his campaign infrastructure and reinforcing his frontrunner status in the Republican primary.

Florida Bar confirms disciplinary investigation of Matt Gaetz

Following a House Ethics Committee report, the Florida Bar confirmed an ongoing disciplinary investigation into former Representative Matt Gaetz, impacting his political prospects and contributing to his decline in the gubernatorial market.

House Ethics Committee releases report accusing Matt Gaetz of misconduct

Matt Gaetz plunges to 1%40%

The House Ethics Committee released a report accusing Matt Gaetz of paying women for sexual favors, including a minor, which led to his withdrawal from the Attorney General nomination and resignation from Congress. This scandal severely damaged Gaetz's gubernatorial prospects, reflected in his market price collapse.

Trump publicly praises Byron Donalds as preferred Florida governor candidate

Byron Donalds jumps to 81%11%

President Trump reiterated his support for Donalds in a televised interview, prompting a further price rise for Donalds to the low 80s and a corresponding decline for other candidates.

Governor Ron DeSantis declines to endorse any primary candidate

DeSantis' neutrality removed a potential boost for other contenders, reinforcing Donalds' lead and contributing to the continued decline of the remaining candidates toward zero.

Byron Donalds sets Florida fundraising record with $45 million raised in 2025

Byron Donalds surges to 82%19%

Donalds raised an unprecedented $45 million in 2025 for his gubernatorial campaign, surpassing previous records and solidifying his frontrunner status. This fundraising success significantly boosted market confidence in his chances.

Byron Donalds raises $45 million in 2025 for Florida governor campaign

Byron Donalds jumps to 82%11%

Byron Donalds' campaign announced raising $45 million over 2025, setting a fundraising record for Florida gubernatorial candidates at this stage. This financial strength increased his market support and solidified his frontrunner status.

Byron Donalds raises record $45 million in 2025 for Florida governor campaign

Byron Donalds jumps to 82%14%

Donalds' campaign announced a record-breaking fundraising haul of $45 million in 2025, the largest in Florida gubernatorial history at this point. This financial strength reinforced his frontrunner status and caused his market price to rise sharply.

Faith leaders unite behind Byron Donalds' Florida governor bid

Byron Donalds formed a Faith Leaders Coalition comprising 65 clergy and faith-based leaders to support his gubernatorial campaign. This coalition organized weekly prayer calls and mobilized grassroots support, strengthening Donalds' campaign infrastructure and voter outreach efforts.

Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor

Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%

Collins' entry added a high‑profile state official to the field, briefly lifting his price from single digits to low‑teens before his support waned as Donalds' endorsement dominated the narrative.

Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Republican primary field

Byron Donalds jumps to 70%10%

A statewide poll released in mid‑December gave Donalds a double‑digit lead over his rivals, reinforcing his upward price trajectory to the low 70s.

Azoria CEO James Fishback launches gubernatorial campaign

James Fishback drops to 36%7%

James Fishback entered the race, positioning himself as a business outsider; the announcement shifted attention away from other fringe candidates, contributing to a modest dip in his own price and a slight rise for Donalds.

Byron Donalds gains momentum as frontrunner in Florida GOP governor race

Byron Donalds surges to 67%19%

Byron Donalds' campaign gained significant traction with increasing fundraising and endorsements, including from Donald Trump, leading to a sharp rise in his market support and polling numbers, establishing him as the leading candidate in the Republican primary.

James Fishback launches gubernatorial campaign

James Fishback drops to 33%10%

Entrepreneur James Fishback entered the race, drawing limited media attention; his market price fell from 43% to the low 30s as donors and voters focused on higher‑profile candidates.

Jay Collins' gubernatorial bid gains attention as lieutenant governor

Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%

Following his announcement, Jay Collins' candidacy gained traction but faced challenges competing against Trump-backed Donalds, reflected in fluctuating market prices in early December 2025.

Trump-endorsed Donalds raises $45M in Florida governor campaign

Byron Donalds jumps to 82%9%

Donalds surpassed all previous gubernatorial fundraising records, amassing $45 million over 2025 with $13.1 million in Q4, solidifying his position as the frontrunner.

Trump-endorsed Donalds raises $45 million in Florida governor campaign

Byron Donalds jumps to 82%9%

Donalds surpassed all previous gubernatorial fundraising records with $45 million raised over 2025, including $13.1 million in Q4 from over 8,000 donors, solidifying his position as the frontrunner.

Emerson College poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor primary

Byron Donalds surges to 69%21%

A poll from Emerson College showed Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary with 46% support, far ahead of other candidates. This polling data reinforced Donalds' frontrunner status and likely contributed to his market price increase.

Donald Trump endorses Rep. Byron Donalds for Florida governor

Byron Donalds jumps to 62%14%

Former President Trump publicly backed Byron Donalds, giving the candidate a major boost in national visibility and signaling party establishment support, which drove Donalds' price from the low‑40s to the high‑60s percent range.

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces gubernatorial run

Jay Collins plunges to 12%30%

Jay Collins entered the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, positioning himself against Trump‑backed Byron Donalds. The announcement triggered a steep drop in Collins' market price as voters reassessed his viability.

Lt. Gov. Jay Collins enters 2026 Florida governor race

Jay Collins plunges to 12%30%

Jay Collins announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a DeSantis ally but without a clear endorsement, which coincided with a sharp drop in his market price from 42% to the low single digits over the following weeks.

Jay Collins announces run for Florida governor

Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announced his candidacy for governor, entering the primary race against Trump-backed Byron Donalds, which initially caused a shift in market expectations.

James Fishback's campaign faces early market decline

James Fishback plunges to 10%33%

Fishback's campaign struggled early, with his price dropping from 43% to 10% by mid-2026, indicating limited traction in the competitive field.

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces 2026 gubernatorial run against Trump-backed Byron Donalds

Jay Collins surges to 88%46%

Collins' official announcement launched his campaign, positioning him as a serious contender with strong military credentials and a potential path to challenge term-limited Gov. DeSantis. This major news event drove his price surge from 42% to 88% over the following months.

Byron Donalds emerges as early frontrunner with Trump endorsement

Byron Donalds surges to 66%18%

Byron Donalds, U.S. Representative from Florida, gained early momentum in the Republican primary after receiving President Donald Trump's endorsement. This endorsement significantly boosted his polling and fundraising, leading to a rapid increase in market support from 48% to over 80% in the following months.

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor in 2026 Republican primary

Jay Collins, appointed lieutenant governor by Ron DeSantis, officially entered the Republican primary, positioning himself against frontrunner Byron Donalds, who had Trump's endorsement. Collins' military background and legislative record were highlighted, but DeSantis withheld endorsement, leaving the race open.

Byron Donalds' gubernatorial campaign gains momentum

Byron Donalds' campaign for Florida governor, backed by Donald Trump, began the analysis window with strong market support, reflecting his status as the frontrunner.

Byron Donalds emerges as Trump-endorsed frontrunner for Florida governor

Byron Donalds surges to 67%19%

U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds secured the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, positioning him as the leading candidate in the Republican primary. This endorsement significantly boosted his campaign visibility and fundraising, reflected in rising market prices.

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces 2026 governor run against Trump-backed Byron Donalds

Byron Donalds surges to 63%15%

Jay Collins, Florida's lieutenant governor and a DeSantis ally, officially entered the Republican primary, setting up a contest against Trump-endorsed Byron Donalds. This announcement clarified the primary field and influenced early market positioning, with Donalds gaining from Trump's backing and Collins entering as a credible contender.