Skip to main content
icon for Precipitation in NYC in April?

Precipitation in NYC in April?

icon for Precipitation in NYC in April?

Precipitation in NYC in April?

Apr 30

May 31

Apr 30

May 31

2-3" 98%

3-4" 5.5%

<2" 2.4%

4-5" 1.9%

Polymarket

$64,777 Vol.

2-3" 98%

3-4" 5.5%

<2" 2.4%

4-5" 1.9%

Polymarket

$64,777 Vol.

<2"

$18,282 Vol.

2%

2-3"

$14,103 Vol.

86%

3-4"

$10,983 Vol.

6%

4-5"

$14,032 Vol.

2%

5-6"

$3,258 Vol.

1%

>6"

$4,119 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service observations at Central Park, NOAA's official station for New York City, record just 2.12 inches of precipitation through April 27, 2026—well below the 3.6-inch 1991-2020 climatological normal—with no measurable rain on April 28 amid persistent high-pressure ridges and stable upper-air patterns. This dry month-to-date reality, including an exceptionally arid early April (only 0.35 inches through the 13th), drives the 91.5% market-implied probability for the 2-3 inch range, reflecting trader consensus on minimal upside from NOAA forecast models showing under 30% chances of significant precipitation on April 29-30 under neutral ENSO conditions. Realistic challenges include unexpected convective showers or stalled fronts adding 0.8+ inches in the final days, though model ensembles indicate low risk. Final NOAA monthly summary expected soon after April 30.

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$64,777
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service observations at Central Park, NOAA's official station for New York City, record just 2.12 inches of precipitation through April 27, 2026—well below the 3.6-inch 1991-2020 climatological normal—with no measurable rain on April 28 amid persistent high-pressure ridges and stable upper-air patterns. This dry month-to-date reality, including an exceptionally arid early April (only 0.35 inches through the 13th), drives the 91.5% market-implied probability for the 2-3 inch range, reflecting trader consensus on minimal upside from NOAA forecast models showing under 30% chances of significant precipitation on April 29-30 under neutral ENSO conditions. Realistic challenges include unexpected convective showers or stalled fronts adding 0.8+ inches in the final days, though model ensembles indicate low risk. Final NOAA monthly summary expected soon after April 30.

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$64,777
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Related

icon for Will Hong Kong have 240mm or more of precipitation in May?

Will Hong Kong have 240mm or more of precipitation in May?

59%
icon for Will London have 30mm or more of precipitation in May?

Will London have 30mm or more of precipitation in May?

66%
icon for Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?

Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?

86%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Precipitation in NYC in April?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2-3"" at 86%, followed by "3-4"" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Precipitation in NYC in April?" has generated $64.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Precipitation in NYC in April?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Precipitation in NYC in April?" is "2-3"" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3-4"" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Precipitation in NYC in April?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.