Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 (83.5% implied probability), driven by NOAA Storm Prediction Center data showing 451 confirmed tornadoes through April 24—well above the 1991–2020 average pace of roughly 350 by late April. Early-season outbreaks, including the April 17–18 event (80 tornadoes confirmed) and the April 23–28 sequence featuring an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma, have accelerated the year-to-date total amid favorable upper-level jet dynamics, high instability, and residual La Niña influences transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions (80% chance through June per NOAA). With peak months of May and June ahead, historical analogs and front-loaded seasonal outlooks from agencies like SPC support exceeding the long-term annual average of about 1200, though final surveys often reduce preliminary counts by 10–20% and late-season lulls remain possible. Upcoming SPC convective outlooks will refine remaining-season risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 86%
1200–1249 7.2%
1150–1199 5.9%
1100–1149 2.4%
$71,068 Vol.
$71,068 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
2%
1100–1149
2%
1150–1199
6%
1200–1249
7%
1250+
86%
1250+ 86%
1200–1249 7.2%
1150–1199 5.9%
1100–1149 2.4%
$71,068 Vol.
$71,068 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$22,324 Vol.
1%
950–999
$2,674 Vol.
<1%
1000–1049
$2,221 Vol.
<1%
1050–1099
$7,869 Vol.
2%
1100–1149
$1,955 Vol.
2%
1150–1199
$2,402 Vol.
6%
1200–1249
$15,069 Vol.
7%
1250+
$16,553 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 (83.5% implied probability), driven by NOAA Storm Prediction Center data showing 451 confirmed tornadoes through April 24—well above the 1991–2020 average pace of roughly 350 by late April. Early-season outbreaks, including the April 17–18 event (80 tornadoes confirmed) and the April 23–28 sequence featuring an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma, have accelerated the year-to-date total amid favorable upper-level jet dynamics, high instability, and residual La Niña influences transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions (80% chance through June per NOAA). With peak months of May and June ahead, historical analogs and front-loaded seasonal outlooks from agencies like SPC support exceeding the long-term annual average of about 1200, though final surveys often reduce preliminary counts by 10–20% and late-season lulls remain possible. Upcoming SPC convective outlooks will refine remaining-season risks.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volume
$71,068End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 (83.5% implied probability), driven by NOAA Storm Prediction Center data showing 451 confirmed tornadoes through April 24—well above the 1991–2020 average pace of roughly 350 by late April. Early-season outbreaks, including the April 17–18 event (80 tornadoes confirmed) and the April 23–28 sequence featuring an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma, have accelerated the year-to-date total amid favorable upper-level jet dynamics, high instability, and residual La Niña influences transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions (80% chance through June per NOAA). With peak months of May and June ahead, historical analogs and front-loaded seasonal outlooks from agencies like SPC support exceeding the long-term annual average of about 1200, though final surveys often reduce preliminary counts by 10–20% and late-season lulls remain possible. Upcoming SPC convective outlooks will refine remaining-season risks.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$71,068End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 (83.5% implied probability), driven by NOAA Storm Prediction Center data showing 451 confirmed tornadoes through April 24—well above the 1991–2020 average pace of roughly 350 by late April. Early-season outbreaks, including the April 17–18 event (80 tornadoes confirmed) and the April 23–28 sequence featuring an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma, have accelerated the year-to-date total amid favorable upper-level jet dynamics, high instability, and residual La Niña influences transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions (80% chance through June per NOAA). With peak months of May and June ahead, historical analogs and front-loaded seasonal outlooks from agencies like SPC support exceeding the long-term annual average of about 1200, though final surveys often reduce preliminary counts by 10–20% and late-season lulls remain possible. Upcoming SPC convective outlooks will refine remaining-season risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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