Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, with its D+50 Cook Partisan Voting Index reflecting overwhelming Democratic support in urban Philadelphia, drives trader consensus toward a 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party in the 2026 House general election. Longstanding large victory margins for Democrats, even after incumbent Rep. Dwight Evans announced his retirement in 2025, reinforce this safe Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, as the open seat fuels a competitive primary among candidates like Sharif Street, Chris Rabb, and Ala Stanford ahead of the May 19 primary. Recent primary forums and debates have sharpened intra-party competition but done little to elevate Republican prospects, which lack viable challengers or polling traction. Realistic challenges include a post-primary Democratic scandal, abnormally low Democratic turnout, or a national Republican wave flipping battleground dynamics, though historical base rates for such deep-blue seats suggest minimal risk before the November election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-03 House Election Winner
PA-03 House Election Winner
$13,636 Vol.
$13,636 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
82%
Republican Party
6%
$13,636 Vol.
$13,636 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$7,878 Vol.
82%
Republican Party
$5,757 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, with its D+50 Cook Partisan Voting Index reflecting overwhelming Democratic support in urban Philadelphia, drives trader consensus toward a 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party in the 2026 House general election. Longstanding large victory margins for Democrats, even after incumbent Rep. Dwight Evans announced his retirement in 2025, reinforce this safe Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, as the open seat fuels a competitive primary among candidates like Sharif Street, Chris Rabb, and Ala Stanford ahead of the May 19 primary. Recent primary forums and debates have sharpened intra-party competition but done little to elevate Republican prospects, which lack viable challengers or polling traction. Realistic challenges include a post-primary Democratic scandal, abnormally low Democratic turnout, or a national Republican wave flipping battleground dynamics, though historical base rates for such deep-blue seats suggest minimal risk before the November election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$13,636End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, with its D+50 Cook Partisan Voting Index reflecting overwhelming Democratic support in urban Philadelphia, drives trader consensus toward a 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party in the 2026 House general election. Longstanding large victory margins for Democrats, even after incumbent Rep. Dwight Evans announced his retirement in 2025, reinforce this safe Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, as the open seat fuels a competitive primary among candidates like Sharif Street, Chris Rabb, and Ala Stanford ahead of the May 19 primary. Recent primary forums and debates have sharpened intra-party competition but done little to elevate Republican prospects, which lack viable challengers or polling traction. Realistic challenges include a post-primary Democratic scandal, abnormally low Democratic turnout, or a national Republican wave flipping battleground dynamics, though historical base rates for such deep-blue seats suggest minimal risk before the November election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,636End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, with its D+50 Cook Partisan Voting Index reflecting overwhelming Democratic support in urban Philadelphia, drives trader consensus toward a 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party in the 2026 House general election. Longstanding large victory margins for Democrats, even after incumbent Rep. Dwight Evans announced his retirement in 2025, reinforce this safe Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, as the open seat fuels a competitive primary among candidates like Sharif Street, Chris Rabb, and Ala Stanford ahead of the May 19 primary. Recent primary forums and debates have sharpened intra-party competition but done little to elevate Republican prospects, which lack viable challengers or polling traction. Realistic challenges include a post-primary Democratic scandal, abnormally low Democratic turnout, or a national Republican wave flipping battleground dynamics, though historical base rates for such deep-blue seats suggest minimal risk before the November election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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