Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, as reflected in the market’s heavy weighting toward the Democratic nominee. The seat carries Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters following Conaway’s 2024 victory and his unopposed primary advance, while Republican nominee Michael McGuire emerged from a June 2 primary in a district where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans and independents predominate. Recent primary outcomes and the absence of competitive challenges have reinforced trader consensus around the incumbent’s structural advantages. Scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap include an unusually strong Republican national environment, major candidate-specific developments, or shifts in turnout among unaffiliated voters before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-03 House Election Winner
NJ-03 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$771 Vol.
91%
Republican Party
$141 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, as reflected in the market’s heavy weighting toward the Democratic nominee. The seat carries Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters following Conaway’s 2024 victory and his unopposed primary advance, while Republican nominee Michael McGuire emerged from a June 2 primary in a district where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans and independents predominate. Recent primary outcomes and the absence of competitive challenges have reinforced trader consensus around the incumbent’s structural advantages. Scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap include an unusually strong Republican national environment, major candidate-specific developments, or shifts in turnout among unaffiliated voters before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$912End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, as reflected in the market’s heavy weighting toward the Democratic nominee. The seat carries Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters following Conaway’s 2024 victory and his unopposed primary advance, while Republican nominee Michael McGuire emerged from a June 2 primary in a district where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans and independents predominate. Recent primary outcomes and the absence of competitive challenges have reinforced trader consensus around the incumbent’s structural advantages. Scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap include an unusually strong Republican national environment, major candidate-specific developments, or shifts in turnout among unaffiliated voters before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$912End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, as reflected in the market’s heavy weighting toward the Democratic nominee. The seat carries Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters following Conaway’s 2024 victory and his unopposed primary advance, while Republican nominee Michael McGuire emerged from a June 2 primary in a district where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans and independents predominate. Recent primary outcomes and the absence of competitive challenges have reinforced trader consensus around the incumbent’s structural advantages. Scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap include an unusually strong Republican national environment, major candidate-specific developments, or shifts in turnout among unaffiliated voters before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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