Richard Thomson's selection as the SNP candidate for the June 18 by-election, following Stephen Flynn's resignation to join the Scottish Parliament, has anchored trader consensus at 69% for the former Gordon MP. His prior Westminster experience, local Aberdeenshire ties, and the SNP's established position in the constituency have limited shifts despite the short campaign. Douglas Lumsden, the Conservative contender and sitting MSP, sits at 29.5% as the main challenger in a seat where unionist votes have historically split. Minor-party candidates, including Labour's Nurul Hoque Ali and Reform UK's Jo Hart, register near 50% or below due to limited polling visibility and first-past-the-post dynamics. Energy policy debates over North Sea oil and gas have surfaced in recent weeks but have not materially altered the implied probabilities ahead of polling day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRichard Gordon Thomson 68%
Douglas Lumsden 33%
David Ballantine <1%
Nurul Hoque Ali <1%
Richard Gordon Thomson
68%
Douglas Lumsden
33%
David Ballantine
1%
Nurul Hoque Ali
1%
Jo Hart
<1%
Mel Sullivan
<1%
Jorg Shelton-Eckstein
<1%
Richard Gordon Thomson 68%
Douglas Lumsden 33%
David Ballantine <1%
Nurul Hoque Ali <1%
Richard Gordon Thomson
68%
Douglas Lumsden
33%
David Ballantine
1%
Nurul Hoque Ali
1%
Jo Hart
<1%
Mel Sullivan
<1%
Jorg Shelton-Eckstein
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).
Mercado abierto: Jun 9, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Richard Thomson's selection as the SNP candidate for the June 18 by-election, following Stephen Flynn's resignation to join the Scottish Parliament, has anchored trader consensus at 69% for the former Gordon MP. His prior Westminster experience, local Aberdeenshire ties, and the SNP's established position in the constituency have limited shifts despite the short campaign. Douglas Lumsden, the Conservative contender and sitting MSP, sits at 29.5% as the main challenger in a seat where unionist votes have historically split. Minor-party candidates, including Labour's Nurul Hoque Ali and Reform UK's Jo Hart, register near 50% or below due to limited polling visibility and first-past-the-post dynamics. Energy policy debates over North Sea oil and gas have surfaced in recent weeks but have not materially altered the implied probabilities ahead of polling day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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