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Politics·June 23 Primaries

MD-04 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for MD-04 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·June 23 Primaries

MD-04 Democratic Primary Winner

Glenn Ivey 98.9%

Jonathan White 18%

Shavonne Hedgepeth 15%

Joseph Gomes 0

Polymarket
NEW

Glenn Ivey 98.9%

Jonathan White 18%

Shavonne Hedgepeth 15%

Joseph Gomes 0

Polymarket
NEW

Glenn Ivey

$375 Vol.

83%

Jonathan White

$60 Vol.

18%

Shavonne Hedgepeth

$60 Vol.

15%

Joseph Gomes

$50 Vol.

-

Jakeya Johnson

$95 Vol.

-

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Glenn Ivey holds a strong position as the incumbent in Maryland’s 4th Congressional District Democratic primary scheduled for June 23, 2026.** The district’s deep Democratic lean and Ivey’s established fundraising edge, constituent service record, and name recognition underpin trader consensus around his leading odds. Multiple challengers, including Jakeya Johnson, Joseph Gomes, Jonathan White, and Shavonne Hedgepeth, have filed but trail significantly in resources and visibility. Recent activity has centered on routine campaign forums and Ivey’s legislative focus on federal funding and oversight, with no major late developments reported that would alter the race’s trajectory. The primary outcome will effectively decide the general election in this solidly Democratic seat.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$642
Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 4:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Glenn Ivey holds a strong position as the incumbent in Maryland’s 4th Congressional District Democratic primary scheduled for June 23, 2026.** The district’s deep Democratic lean and Ivey’s established fundraising edge, constituent service record, and name recognition underpin trader consensus around his leading odds. Multiple challengers, including Jakeya Johnson, Joseph Gomes, Jonathan White, and Shavonne Hedgepeth, have filed but trail significantly in resources and visibility. Recent activity has centered on routine campaign forums and Ivey’s legislative focus on federal funding and oversight, with no major late developments reported that would alter the race’s trajectory. The primary outcome will effectively decide the general election in this solidly Democratic seat.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$642
Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 4:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MD-04 Democratic Primary Winner " is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Glenn Ivey" at 83%, followed by "Joseph Gomes" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 83¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 83% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"MD-04 Democratic Primary Winner " is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 10, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "MD-04 Democratic Primary Winner ," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MD-04 Democratic Primary Winner " is "Glenn Ivey" at 83%, meaning the market assigns a 83% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Joseph Gomes" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MD-04 Democratic Primary Winner " define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.