Trader consensus heavily favors President Trump remaining in office through June 30, 2026, reflecting the rarity of mid-term presidential exits absent extraordinary circumstances like resignation, successful impeachment and removal, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or incapacitation. No notable developments in the past 30 days—such as health crises, major scandals, or congressional impeachment probes—have surfaced to challenge this stability; Trump has continued a robust public schedule with policy addresses and executive actions. Historical precedents show elected presidents serve full terms in over 99% of cases, bolstering the pricing. Potential shifters include a sudden medical event, explosive late-breaking scandal triggering impeachment proceedings, or unprecedented cabinet action, though each faces steep institutional barriers before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$4,337,691 Vol.
$4,337,691 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$4,337,691 Vol.
$4,337,691 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors President Trump remaining in office through June 30, 2026, reflecting the rarity of mid-term presidential exits absent extraordinary circumstances like resignation, successful impeachment and removal, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or incapacitation. No notable developments in the past 30 days—such as health crises, major scandals, or congressional impeachment probes—have surfaced to challenge this stability; Trump has continued a robust public schedule with policy addresses and executive actions. Historical precedents show elected presidents serve full terms in over 99% of cases, bolstering the pricing. Potential shifters include a sudden medical event, explosive late-breaking scandal triggering impeachment proceedings, or unprecedented cabinet action, though each faces steep institutional barriers before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ET
Volume
$4,337,691End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors President Trump remaining in office through June 30, 2026, reflecting the rarity of mid-term presidential exits absent extraordinary circumstances like resignation, successful impeachment and removal, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or incapacitation. No notable developments in the past 30 days—such as health crises, major scandals, or congressional impeachment probes—have surfaced to challenge this stability; Trump has continued a robust public schedule with policy addresses and executive actions. Historical precedents show elected presidents serve full terms in over 99% of cases, bolstering the pricing. Potential shifters include a sudden medical event, explosive late-breaking scandal triggering impeachment proceedings, or unprecedented cabinet action, though each faces steep institutional barriers before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,337,691End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors President Trump remaining in office through June 30, 2026, reflecting the rarity of mid-term presidential exits absent extraordinary circumstances like resignation, successful impeachment and removal, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or incapacitation. No notable developments in the past 30 days—such as health crises, major scandals, or congressional impeachment probes—have surfaced to challenge this stability; Trump has continued a robust public schedule with policy addresses and executive actions. Historical precedents show elected presidents serve full terms in over 99% of cases, bolstering the pricing. Potential shifters include a sudden medical event, explosive late-breaking scandal triggering impeachment proceedings, or unprecedented cabinet action, though each faces steep institutional barriers before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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