Incumbent Republican Rep. Chris Smith commands trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability in NJ-04, reflecting his 42-year hold on the solidly Republican district spanning conservative coastal areas of Monmouth and Ocean counties. Recent candidate filings in late March confirmed Democrats John Blake and Rachel Peace as primary contenders on June 2, but lack of competitive polling or fundraising edges keeps the race off battleground lists, with Cook Political Report rating it Solid R. Smith's longevity and district incumbency advantage mirror historical re-election rates above 95% for such seats. Upsets would require a GOP scandal, national Democratic wave, or health issues before November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-04 House Election Winner
NJ-04 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$401 Vol.
91%
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Chris Smith commands trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability in NJ-04, reflecting his 42-year hold on the solidly Republican district spanning conservative coastal areas of Monmouth and Ocean counties. Recent candidate filings in late March confirmed Democrats John Blake and Rachel Peace as primary contenders on June 2, but lack of competitive polling or fundraising edges keeps the race off battleground lists, with Cook Political Report rating it Solid R. Smith's longevity and district incumbency advantage mirror historical re-election rates above 95% for such seats. Upsets would require a GOP scandal, national Democratic wave, or health issues before November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$401End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Chris Smith commands trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability in NJ-04, reflecting his 42-year hold on the solidly Republican district spanning conservative coastal areas of Monmouth and Ocean counties. Recent candidate filings in late March confirmed Democrats John Blake and Rachel Peace as primary contenders on June 2, but lack of competitive polling or fundraising edges keeps the race off battleground lists, with Cook Political Report rating it Solid R. Smith's longevity and district incumbency advantage mirror historical re-election rates above 95% for such seats. Upsets would require a GOP scandal, national Democratic wave, or health issues before November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$401End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rep. Chris Smith commands trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability in NJ-04, reflecting his 42-year hold on the solidly Republican district spanning conservative coastal areas of Monmouth and Ocean counties. Recent candidate filings in late March confirmed Democrats John Blake and Rachel Peace as primary contenders on June 2, but lack of competitive polling or fundraising edges keeps the race off battleground lists, with Cook Political Report rating it Solid R. Smith's longevity and district incumbency advantage mirror historical re-election rates above 95% for such seats. Upsets would require a GOP scandal, national Democratic wave, or health issues before November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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