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Elections·Scotland

2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry By-Election Winner

icon for 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry By-Election Winner
Elections·Scotland

2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry By-Election Winner

Lara Bird 85%

Heather Doran 10%

Jack Cruickshanks 2.1%

Bill Reid 2.0%

Polymarket
NEW

Lara Bird 85%

Heather Doran 10%

Jack Cruickshanks 2.1%

Bill Reid 2.0%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Lara Bird

Lara Bird

$2,549 Vol.

85%

icon for Heather Doran

Heather Doran

$960 Vol.

10%

icon for Jack Cruickshanks

Jack Cruickshanks

$215 Vol.

2%

icon for Bill Reid

Bill Reid

$121 Vol.

2%

icon for Tanvir Ahmad

Tanvir Ahmad

$206 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Arbroath and Broughty Ferry is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Angus Council (https://www.angus.gov.uk/).The by-election for the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry UK parliamentary seat, triggered by the May 2026 election of incumbent SNP MP Stephen Gethins to the Scottish Parliament, is scheduled for 18 June. Lara Bird secured the SNP nomination in late May after a short selection contest and enters as the clear frontrunner, consistent with the party's recent Holyrood performance in the area and historical first-past-the-post patterns in this constituency. Heather Doran (Labour), the sole Angus councillor for her party, trails at lower implied probability alongside Reform UK's Bill Reid, the Conservatives' Jack Cruickshanks, and the Liberal Democrats' Tanvir Ahmad. Nominations closed on 22 May with five confirmed candidates; the short campaign window and absence of major late developments have left trader consensus anchored on continuity of SNP support in this north-east Scotland seat.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Arbroath and Broughty Ferry is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry parliamentary by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Angus Council (https://www.angus.gov.uk/).
Volume
$4,051
End Date
Jun 19, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Arbroath and Broughty Ferry is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Angus Council (https://www.angus.gov.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Arbroath and Broughty Ferry is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Angus Council (https://www.angus.gov.uk/).The by-election for the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry UK parliamentary seat, triggered by the May 2026 election of incumbent SNP MP Stephen Gethins to the Scottish Parliament, is scheduled for 18 June. Lara Bird secured the SNP nomination in late May after a short selection contest and enters as the clear frontrunner, consistent with the party's recent Holyrood performance in the area and historical first-past-the-post patterns in this constituency. Heather Doran (Labour), the sole Angus councillor for her party, trails at lower implied probability alongside Reform UK's Bill Reid, the Conservatives' Jack Cruickshanks, and the Liberal Democrats' Tanvir Ahmad. Nominations closed on 22 May with five confirmed candidates; the short campaign window and absence of major late developments have left trader consensus anchored on continuity of SNP support in this north-east Scotland seat.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Arbroath and Broughty Ferry is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry parliamentary by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Angus Council (https://www.angus.gov.uk/).
Volume
$4,051
End Date
Jun 19, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Arbroath and Broughty Ferry is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Angus Council (https://www.angus.gov.uk/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lara Bird" at 85%, followed by "Heather Doran" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry By-Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry By-Election Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry By-Election Winner" is "Lara Bird" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Heather Doran" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.