Persistent low Arctic sea ice extent through winter and spring 2026, including the third-lowest January on record and near-record lows into April per NSIDC and JAXA data, has driven trader consensus toward a September minimum below 4 million square kilometers. Arctic amplification and above-average temperatures in key regions like the Barents and Bering seas have limited ice growth, leaving thinner, more vulnerable ice entering the melt season amid the long-term 12% per decade decline. Model projections and historical analogs support elevated odds of record or near-record lows when starting conditions are this depressed, though summer weather patterns and melt rate variability introduce uncertainty ahead of peak melt.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
<4m sq km 57%
4.0-4.2m sq km 18.3%
4.2-4.4m sq km 8.0%
4.4-4.6m sq km 5.0%
$54,834 Vol.
$54,834 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
57%
4.0-4.2m sq km
18%
4.2-4.4m sq km
8%
4.4-4.6m sq km
5%
4.6-4.8m sq km
5%
4.8-5m sq km
2%
5m+ sq km
1%
<4m sq km 57%
4.0-4.2m sq km 18.3%
4.2-4.4m sq km 8.0%
4.4-4.6m sq km 5.0%
$54,834 Vol.
$54,834 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$27,700 Vol.
57%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$4,783 Vol.
18%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$1,558 Vol.
8%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$1,972 Vol.
5%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$3,304 Vol.
5%
4.8-5m sq km
$1,840 Vol.
2%
5m+ sq km
$13,677 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Persistent low Arctic sea ice extent through winter and spring 2026, including the third-lowest January on record and near-record lows into April per NSIDC and JAXA data, has driven trader consensus toward a September minimum below 4 million square kilometers. Arctic amplification and above-average temperatures in key regions like the Barents and Bering seas have limited ice growth, leaving thinner, more vulnerable ice entering the melt season amid the long-term 12% per decade decline. Model projections and historical analogs support elevated odds of record or near-record lows when starting conditions are this depressed, though summer weather patterns and melt rate variability introduce uncertainty ahead of peak melt.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$54,834End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Persistent low Arctic sea ice extent through winter and spring 2026, including the third-lowest January on record and near-record lows into April per NSIDC and JAXA data, has driven trader consensus toward a September minimum below 4 million square kilometers. Arctic amplification and above-average temperatures in key regions like the Barents and Bering seas have limited ice growth, leaving thinner, more vulnerable ice entering the melt season amid the long-term 12% per decade decline. Model projections and historical analogs support elevated odds of record or near-record lows when starting conditions are this depressed, though summer weather patterns and melt rate variability introduce uncertainty ahead of peak melt.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$54,834End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent low Arctic sea ice extent through winter and spring 2026, including the third-lowest January on record and near-record lows into April per NSIDC and JAXA data, has driven trader consensus toward a September minimum below 4 million square kilometers. Arctic amplification and above-average temperatures in key regions like the Barents and Bering seas have limited ice growth, leaving thinner, more vulnerable ice entering the melt season amid the long-term 12% per decade decline. Model projections and historical analogs support elevated odds of record or near-record lows when starting conditions are this depressed, though summer weather patterns and melt rate variability introduce uncertainty ahead of peak melt.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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