**Trader consensus on the Istanbul highest temperature market heavily favors 26°C at 99.8% implied probability**, reflecting near-certainty based on real-time meteorological observations and model guidance for June 14, 2026. Official forecasts from sources such as timeanddate and AccuWeather project a daily maximum near 25–26°C (77–79°F) under mostly sunny skies with light winds, consistent with typical early-summer conditions in the region where June averages hover around 25–27°C. Atmospheric stability, high solar insolation without significant cloud cover or frontal systems, and alignment across ensemble models (including GFS and ECMWF runs) have locked in this narrow outcome. Historical climatology shows Istanbul rarely deviates sharply from these patterns in mid-June absent major synoptic changes. Realistic challenges remain limited but include last-hour convective development, station-specific microclimate effects at the official recording site, or minor forecast revisions from updated model runs that could nudge the peak by 1°C. With resolution imminent on the calendar day, the market-implied odds accurately capture the overwhelming scientific and observational evidence supporting a 26°C high.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on June 14?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 14?
26°C 99.8%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$57,362 Vol.
$57,362 Vol.
14 jun 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
100%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 99.8%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$57,362 Vol.
$57,362 Vol.
14 jun 2026
20°C or below
$6,340 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,408 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,940 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5,724 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$5,705 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$12,370 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$9,907 Vol.
100%
27°C
$4,313 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$5,933 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,630 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$2,105 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on the Istanbul highest temperature market heavily favors 26°C at 99.8% implied probability**, reflecting near-certainty based on real-time meteorological observations and model guidance for June 14, 2026. Official forecasts from sources such as timeanddate and AccuWeather project a daily maximum near 25–26°C (77–79°F) under mostly sunny skies with light winds, consistent with typical early-summer conditions in the region where June averages hover around 25–27°C.
Atmospheric stability, high solar insolation without significant cloud cover or frontal systems, and alignment across ensemble models (including GFS and ECMWF runs) have locked in this narrow outcome. Historical climatology shows Istanbul rarely deviates sharply from these patterns in mid-June absent major synoptic changes.
Realistic challenges remain limited but include last-hour convective development, station-specific microclimate effects at the official recording site, or minor forecast revisions from updated model runs that could nudge the peak by 1°C. With resolution imminent on the calendar day, the market-implied odds accurately capture the overwhelming scientific and observational evidence supporting a 26°C high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jun 12, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$57,362Fecha de finalización
14 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 12, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on the Istanbul highest temperature market heavily favors 26°C at 99.8% implied probability**, reflecting near-certainty based on real-time meteorological observations and model guidance for June 14, 2026. Official forecasts from sources such as timeanddate and AccuWeather project a daily maximum near 25–26°C (77–79°F) under mostly sunny skies with light winds, consistent with typical early-summer conditions in the region where June averages hover around 25–27°C.
Atmospheric stability, high solar insolation without significant cloud cover or frontal systems, and alignment across ensemble models (including GFS and ECMWF runs) have locked in this narrow outcome. Historical climatology shows Istanbul rarely deviates sharply from these patterns in mid-June absent major synoptic changes.
Realistic challenges remain limited but include last-hour convective development, station-specific microclimate effects at the official recording site, or minor forecast revisions from updated model runs that could nudge the peak by 1°C. With resolution imminent on the calendar day, the market-implied odds accurately capture the overwhelming scientific and observational evidence supporting a 26°C high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$57,362Fecha de finalización
14 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 12, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the Istanbul highest temperature market heavily favors 26°C at 99.8% implied probability**, reflecting near-certainty based on real-time meteorological observations and model guidance for June 14, 2026. Official forecasts from sources such as timeanddate and AccuWeather project a daily maximum near 25–26°C (77–79°F) under mostly sunny skies with light winds, consistent with typical early-summer conditions in the region where June averages hover around 25–27°C. Atmospheric stability, high solar insolation without significant cloud cover or frontal systems, and alignment across ensemble models (including GFS and ECMWF runs) have locked in this narrow outcome. Historical climatology shows Istanbul rarely deviates sharply from these patterns in mid-June absent major synoptic changes. Realistic challenges remain limited but include last-hour convective development, station-specific microclimate effects at the official recording site, or minor forecast revisions from updated model runs that could nudge the peak by 1°C. With resolution imminent on the calendar day, the market-implied odds accurately capture the overwhelming scientific and observational evidence supporting a 26°C high.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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