Recent El Niño development in the tropical Pacific is the dominant factor aligning trader consensus around a 1.15–1.19 °C global temperature anomaly for June 2026 above the 1850–1900 baseline. Equatorial sea-surface temperatures have risen sharply, with models assigning an 80–98% probability of El Niño conditions during June–August that typically add 0.1–0.2 °C to global means. April and May 2026 already ranked among the warmest on record in Copernicus and reanalysis data, continuing the post-2023 elevated baseline despite 2025’s slight cooling relative to 2024. Forecasters note the inherent spread in seasonal models and potential for rapid shifts in ocean-atmosphere coupling, with official June reports from NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization expected to refine the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 52%
1.10–1.14ºC 26%
<1.10ºC 24%
1.20–1.24ºC 22%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
24%
1.10–1.14ºC
26%
1.15–1.19ºC
52%
1.20–1.24ºC
33%
1.25–1.29ºC
11%
>1.29ºC
3%
1.15–1.19ºC 52%
1.10–1.14ºC 26%
<1.10ºC 24%
1.20–1.24ºC 22%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
$62 Vol.
24%
1.10–1.14ºC
$37 Vol.
26%
1.15–1.19ºC
$37 Vol.
52%
1.20–1.24ºC
$221 Vol.
33%
1.25–1.29ºC
$195 Vol.
11%
>1.29ºC
$389 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent El Niño development in the tropical Pacific is the dominant factor aligning trader consensus around a 1.15–1.19 °C global temperature anomaly for June 2026 above the 1850–1900 baseline. Equatorial sea-surface temperatures have risen sharply, with models assigning an 80–98% probability of El Niño conditions during June–August that typically add 0.1–0.2 °C to global means. April and May 2026 already ranked among the warmest on record in Copernicus and reanalysis data, continuing the post-2023 elevated baseline despite 2025’s slight cooling relative to 2024. Forecasters note the inherent spread in seasonal models and potential for rapid shifts in ocean-atmosphere coupling, with official June reports from NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization expected to refine the outlook.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$942End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent El Niño development in the tropical Pacific is the dominant factor aligning trader consensus around a 1.15–1.19 °C global temperature anomaly for June 2026 above the 1850–1900 baseline. Equatorial sea-surface temperatures have risen sharply, with models assigning an 80–98% probability of El Niño conditions during June–August that typically add 0.1–0.2 °C to global means. April and May 2026 already ranked among the warmest on record in Copernicus and reanalysis data, continuing the post-2023 elevated baseline despite 2025’s slight cooling relative to 2024. Forecasters note the inherent spread in seasonal models and potential for rapid shifts in ocean-atmosphere coupling, with official June reports from NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization expected to refine the outlook.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$942End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent El Niño development in the tropical Pacific is the dominant factor aligning trader consensus around a 1.15–1.19 °C global temperature anomaly for June 2026 above the 1850–1900 baseline. Equatorial sea-surface temperatures have risen sharply, with models assigning an 80–98% probability of El Niño conditions during June–August that typically add 0.1–0.2 °C to global means. April and May 2026 already ranked among the warmest on record in Copernicus and reanalysis data, continuing the post-2023 elevated baseline despite 2025’s slight cooling relative to 2024. Forecasters note the inherent spread in seasonal models and potential for rapid shifts in ocean-atmosphere coupling, with official June reports from NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization expected to refine the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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