The developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with models assigning an 82–98% chance of emergence during May–July 2026 and rapid Niño 3.4 warming already underway, serves as the dominant near-term driver of trader positioning on the July 2026 global surface temperature anomaly. This oceanic heat release typically adds 0.1–0.2 °C to global means within months, building on the 1.19 °C 2025 annual anomaly relative to the 1951–1980 baseline reported by NASA. However, substantial uncertainty remains regarding the event’s peak intensity—forecasts range from moderate to potentially very strong—along with natural variability, model spread in seasonal outlooks, and the precise timing of atmospheric coupling, which keeps the leading 1.20–1.24 °C, 1.10–1.14 °C, and adjacent bins clustered near 42–44% implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJuly 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.20–1.24ºC 45%
1.15–1.19ºC 43%
<1.10ºC 43%
1.10–1.14ºC 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
43%
1.10–1.14ºC
43%
1.15–1.19ºC
43%
1.20–1.24ºC
45%
1.25–1.29ºC
43%
>1.29ºC
43%
1.20–1.24ºC 45%
1.15–1.19ºC 43%
<1.10ºC 43%
1.10–1.14ºC 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
$59 Vol.
43%
1.10–1.14ºC
$49 Vol.
43%
1.15–1.19ºC
$41 Vol.
43%
1.20–1.24ºC
$45 Vol.
45%
1.25–1.29ºC
$62 Vol.
43%
>1.29ºC
$47 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with models assigning an 82–98% chance of emergence during May–July 2026 and rapid Niño 3.4 warming already underway, serves as the dominant near-term driver of trader positioning on the July 2026 global surface temperature anomaly. This oceanic heat release typically adds 0.1–0.2 °C to global means within months, building on the 1.19 °C 2025 annual anomaly relative to the 1951–1980 baseline reported by NASA. However, substantial uncertainty remains regarding the event’s peak intensity—forecasts range from moderate to potentially very strong—along with natural variability, model spread in seasonal outlooks, and the precise timing of atmospheric coupling, which keeps the leading 1.20–1.24 °C, 1.10–1.14 °C, and adjacent bins clustered near 42–44% implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$303End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with models assigning an 82–98% chance of emergence during May–July 2026 and rapid Niño 3.4 warming already underway, serves as the dominant near-term driver of trader positioning on the July 2026 global surface temperature anomaly. This oceanic heat release typically adds 0.1–0.2 °C to global means within months, building on the 1.19 °C 2025 annual anomaly relative to the 1951–1980 baseline reported by NASA. However, substantial uncertainty remains regarding the event’s peak intensity—forecasts range from moderate to potentially very strong—along with natural variability, model spread in seasonal outlooks, and the precise timing of atmospheric coupling, which keeps the leading 1.20–1.24 °C, 1.10–1.14 °C, and adjacent bins clustered near 42–44% implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$303End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with models assigning an 82–98% chance of emergence during May–July 2026 and rapid Niño 3.4 warming already underway, serves as the dominant near-term driver of trader positioning on the July 2026 global surface temperature anomaly. This oceanic heat release typically adds 0.1–0.2 °C to global means within months, building on the 1.19 °C 2025 annual anomaly relative to the 1951–1980 baseline reported by NASA. However, substantial uncertainty remains regarding the event’s peak intensity—forecasts range from moderate to potentially very strong—along with natural variability, model spread in seasonal outlooks, and the precise timing of atmospheric coupling, which keeps the leading 1.20–1.24 °C, 1.10–1.14 °C, and adjacent bins clustered near 42–44% implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions