AfD holds a commanding lead in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag polling at roughly 36 percent, well ahead of the incumbent SPD at 27 percent and smaller parties clustered in single digits, positioning the party for a plurality of seats on September 20, 2026. Traders assign AfD an 86.5 percent implied probability of finishing first, reflecting sustained eastern German support for the party amid national trends and local dissatisfaction with the long-governing SPD-Left coalition under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig. Weak showings for the Greens, FDP, and others below the five-percent threshold complicate alternative majorities, while recent state election results elsewhere have reinforced AfD momentum without altering the local outlook. The market consensus treats AfD's seat plurality as the most probable outcome based on these polling patterns and coalition math.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
AfD 87%
SPD 13%
CDU <1%
Linke <1%
$239,386 Vol.
$239,386 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
87%
SPD
13%
CDU
1%
Linke
<1%
Grüne
<1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
BSW
<1%
AfD 87%
SPD 13%
CDU <1%
Linke <1%
$239,386 Vol.
$239,386 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
$10,485 Vol.
87%
SPD
$38,401 Vol.
13%
CDU
$29,711 Vol.
1%
Linke
$13,235 Vol.
<1%
Grüne
$54,808 Vol.
<1%
FDP
$54,255 Vol.
<1%
FW
$24,664 Vol.
<1%
BSW
$13,828 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).AfD holds a commanding lead in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag polling at roughly 36 percent, well ahead of the incumbent SPD at 27 percent and smaller parties clustered in single digits, positioning the party for a plurality of seats on September 20, 2026. Traders assign AfD an 86.5 percent implied probability of finishing first, reflecting sustained eastern German support for the party amid national trends and local dissatisfaction with the long-governing SPD-Left coalition under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig. Weak showings for the Greens, FDP, and others below the five-percent threshold complicate alternative majorities, while recent state election results elsewhere have reinforced AfD momentum without altering the local outlook. The market consensus treats AfD's seat plurality as the most probable outcome based on these polling patterns and coalition math.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$239,386End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).AfD holds a commanding lead in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag polling at roughly 36 percent, well ahead of the incumbent SPD at 27 percent and smaller parties clustered in single digits, positioning the party for a plurality of seats on September 20, 2026. Traders assign AfD an 86.5 percent implied probability of finishing first, reflecting sustained eastern German support for the party amid national trends and local dissatisfaction with the long-governing SPD-Left coalition under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig. Weak showings for the Greens, FDP, and others below the five-percent threshold complicate alternative majorities, while recent state election results elsewhere have reinforced AfD momentum without altering the local outlook. The market consensus treats AfD's seat plurality as the most probable outcome based on these polling patterns and coalition math.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$239,386End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...AfD holds a commanding lead in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag polling at roughly 36 percent, well ahead of the incumbent SPD at 27 percent and smaller parties clustered in single digits, positioning the party for a plurality of seats on September 20, 2026. Traders assign AfD an 86.5 percent implied probability of finishing first, reflecting sustained eastern German support for the party amid national trends and local dissatisfaction with the long-governing SPD-Left coalition under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig. Weak showings for the Greens, FDP, and others below the five-percent threshold complicate alternative majorities, while recent state election results elsewhere have reinforced AfD momentum without altering the local outlook. The market consensus treats AfD's seat plurality as the most probable outcome based on these polling patterns and coalition math.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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