Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, which project Seoul's lowest temperature on May 2 clustering around 10–13°C, with 11°C emerging as the slight favorite amid close odds. This positioning stems from recent spring warming trends, where late April observations show daytime highs near 20–23°C and nocturnal lows dipping to 9–12°C under partly cloudy skies, aligning with historical early-May averages of about 10°C at Seoul's official observation sites. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on overnight radiative cooling potential—clearer skies and light winds favor lower temps like 10°C, while increased cloudiness or southerly flow could hold at 12–13°C. KMA short-range updates expected through May 1 will refine this uncertainty before resolution based on verified minimum readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul on May 2?
Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 2?
11°C 21%
12°C 19%
10°C 14%
13°C 14%
NEW
NEW
May 2, 2026
7°C or below
1%
8°C
5%
9°C
7%
10°C
14%
11°C
21%
12°C
19%
13°C
14%
14°C
7%
15°C
5%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
11°C 21%
12°C 19%
10°C 14%
13°C 14%
NEW
NEW
May 2, 2026
7°C or below
$38 Vol.
1%
8°C
$45 Vol.
5%
9°C
$56 Vol.
7%
10°C
$0 Vol.
14%
11°C
$0 Vol.
21%
12°C
$0 Vol.
19%
13°C
$18 Vol.
14%
14°C
$181 Vol.
7%
15°C
$34 Vol.
5%
16°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, which project Seoul's lowest temperature on May 2 clustering around 10–13°C, with 11°C emerging as the slight favorite amid close odds. This positioning stems from recent spring warming trends, where late April observations show daytime highs near 20–23°C and nocturnal lows dipping to 9–12°C under partly cloudy skies, aligning with historical early-May averages of about 10°C at Seoul's official observation sites. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on overnight radiative cooling potential—clearer skies and light winds favor lower temps like 10°C, while increased cloudiness or southerly flow could hold at 12–13°C. KMA short-range updates expected through May 1 will refine this uncertainty before resolution based on verified minimum readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$358End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, which project Seoul's lowest temperature on May 2 clustering around 10–13°C, with 11°C emerging as the slight favorite amid close odds. This positioning stems from recent spring warming trends, where late April observations show daytime highs near 20–23°C and nocturnal lows dipping to 9–12°C under partly cloudy skies, aligning with historical early-May averages of about 10°C at Seoul's official observation sites. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on overnight radiative cooling potential—clearer skies and light winds favor lower temps like 10°C, while increased cloudiness or southerly flow could hold at 12–13°C. KMA short-range updates expected through May 1 will refine this uncertainty before resolution based on verified minimum readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$358End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, which project Seoul's lowest temperature on May 2 clustering around 10–13°C, with 11°C emerging as the slight favorite amid close odds. This positioning stems from recent spring warming trends, where late April observations show daytime highs near 20–23°C and nocturnal lows dipping to 9–12°C under partly cloudy skies, aligning with historical early-May averages of about 10°C at Seoul's official observation sites. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on overnight radiative cooling potential—clearer skies and light winds favor lower temps like 10°C, while increased cloudiness or southerly flow could hold at 12–13°C. KMA short-range updates expected through May 1 will refine this uncertainty before resolution based on verified minimum readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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