MetService's latest midday forecast update on May 6 projects a daytime high of 18°C at Wellington International Airport on May 7, driven by northerly winds advecting warmer maritime air masses amid partly cloudy conditions and isolated showers, positioning this outcome at 48.5% market-implied probability. Recent observations confirm a shift from earlier May's cooler southerly flows—highs of 15–16°C on May 4–6—to this milder regime above the 14–15°C climatological average, with ensemble model consensus tightening around 17–19°C. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty in cloud cover and shower timing, which could cap peaks at 17°C (27.5%) or allow brief solar heating to 19°C (21.5%); further guidance expected this evening, with real-time airport readings resolving the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on May 7?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 7?
18°C 50%
17°C 27%
19°C 22%
20°C 4%
NEW
$46,908 Vol.
NEW
$46,908 Vol.
May 7, 2026
16°C
<1%
17°C
27%
18°C
50%
19°C
22%
20°C
4%
21°C or higher
1%
18°C 50%
17°C 27%
19°C 22%
20°C 4%
NEW
$46,908 Vol.
NEW
$46,908 Vol.
May 7, 2026
16°C
$4,748 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$2,812 Vol.
27%
18°C
$2,095 Vol.
50%
19°C
$2,093 Vol.
22%
20°C
$2,101 Vol.
4%
21°C or higher
$1,018 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest midday forecast update on May 6 projects a daytime high of 18°C at Wellington International Airport on May 7, driven by northerly winds advecting warmer maritime air masses amid partly cloudy conditions and isolated showers, positioning this outcome at 48.5% market-implied probability. Recent observations confirm a shift from earlier May's cooler southerly flows—highs of 15–16°C on May 4–6—to this milder regime above the 14–15°C climatological average, with ensemble model consensus tightening around 17–19°C. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty in cloud cover and shower timing, which could cap peaks at 17°C (27.5%) or allow brief solar heating to 19°C (21.5%); further guidance expected this evening, with real-time airport readings resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 5, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$46,908End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest midday forecast update on May 6 projects a daytime high of 18°C at Wellington International Airport on May 7, driven by northerly winds advecting warmer maritime air masses amid partly cloudy conditions and isolated showers, positioning this outcome at 48.5% market-implied probability. Recent observations confirm a shift from earlier May's cooler southerly flows—highs of 15–16°C on May 4–6—to this milder regime above the 14–15°C climatological average, with ensemble model consensus tightening around 17–19°C. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty in cloud cover and shower timing, which could cap peaks at 17°C (27.5%) or allow brief solar heating to 19°C (21.5%); further guidance expected this evening, with real-time airport readings resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$46,908End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...MetService's latest midday forecast update on May 6 projects a daytime high of 18°C at Wellington International Airport on May 7, driven by northerly winds advecting warmer maritime air masses amid partly cloudy conditions and isolated showers, positioning this outcome at 48.5% market-implied probability. Recent observations confirm a shift from earlier May's cooler southerly flows—highs of 15–16°C on May 4–6—to this milder regime above the 14–15°C climatological average, with ensemble model consensus tightening around 17–19°C. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty in cloud cover and shower timing, which could cap peaks at 17°C (27.5%) or allow brief solar heating to 19°C (21.5%); further guidance expected this evening, with real-time airport readings resolving the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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