MetService's latest forecast, issued late April 30, projects a 15°C maximum temperature at Wellington International Airport on May 1 under fine conditions with northerlies developing in the afternoon, stabilizing trader sentiment around this outcome amid a high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and moderate insolation. The slight edge to 16°C (43.5% implied probability vs. 34.5% for 15°C) stems from potential warming from strengthening northerly airflow—carrying subtropical air masses—and NIWA's seasonal outlook favoring above-average temperatures (50% chance) for the Central North Island. Differentiating factors include coastal moderation limiting peaks versus inland analogs hitting 16°C, with historical May 1 variability (±1-2°C) and model consensus underscoring inherent short-range uncertainty ahead of real-time observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on May 1?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 1?
16°C 42%
15°C 34%
14°C 14%
17°C 11%
NEW
$34,627 Vol.
NEW
$34,627 Vol.
May 1, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
14%
15°C
34%
16°C
42%
17°C
11%
18°C
2%
19°C or higher
<1%
16°C 42%
15°C 34%
14°C 14%
17°C 11%
NEW
$34,627 Vol.
NEW
$34,627 Vol.
May 1, 2026
9°C or below
$2,373 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$574 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,032 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$4,866 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$3,995 Vol.
1%
14°C
$10,201 Vol.
14%
15°C
$2,943 Vol.
34%
16°C
$3,662 Vol.
42%
17°C
$3,289 Vol.
11%
18°C
$1,875 Vol.
2%
19°C or higher
$881 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest forecast, issued late April 30, projects a 15°C maximum temperature at Wellington International Airport on May 1 under fine conditions with northerlies developing in the afternoon, stabilizing trader sentiment around this outcome amid a high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and moderate insolation. The slight edge to 16°C (43.5% implied probability vs. 34.5% for 15°C) stems from potential warming from strengthening northerly airflow—carrying subtropical air masses—and NIWA's seasonal outlook favoring above-average temperatures (50% chance) for the Central North Island. Differentiating factors include coastal moderation limiting peaks versus inland analogs hitting 16°C, with historical May 1 variability (±1-2°C) and model consensus underscoring inherent short-range uncertainty ahead of real-time observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:25 AM ET
Volume
$34,627End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:25 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest forecast, issued late April 30, projects a 15°C maximum temperature at Wellington International Airport on May 1 under fine conditions with northerlies developing in the afternoon, stabilizing trader sentiment around this outcome amid a high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and moderate insolation. The slight edge to 16°C (43.5% implied probability vs. 34.5% for 15°C) stems from potential warming from strengthening northerly airflow—carrying subtropical air masses—and NIWA's seasonal outlook favoring above-average temperatures (50% chance) for the Central North Island. Differentiating factors include coastal moderation limiting peaks versus inland analogs hitting 16°C, with historical May 1 variability (±1-2°C) and model consensus underscoring inherent short-range uncertainty ahead of real-time observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$34,627End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:25 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...MetService's latest forecast, issued late April 30, projects a 15°C maximum temperature at Wellington International Airport on May 1 under fine conditions with northerlies developing in the afternoon, stabilizing trader sentiment around this outcome amid a high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and moderate insolation. The slight edge to 16°C (43.5% implied probability vs. 34.5% for 15°C) stems from potential warming from strengthening northerly airflow—carrying subtropical air masses—and NIWA's seasonal outlook favoring above-average temperatures (50% chance) for the Central North Island. Differentiating factors include coastal moderation limiting peaks versus inland analogs hitting 16°C, with historical May 1 variability (±1-2°C) and model consensus underscoring inherent short-range uncertainty ahead of real-time observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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