Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Warsaw's May 8 high temperature, with ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS clustering outcomes at 14–17°C amid a weak cold front ushering northerly winds and increased cloud cover that limits diurnal heating. Recent 48-hour updates from IMGW and international models show slight divergences: cooler 14°C runs emphasize persistent overcast skies and cool air advection, while 17°C scenarios hinge on partial clearing and stronger boundary layer mixing for enhanced insolation. Typical early May highs average 17–19°C historically, but current synoptic patterns favor moderation; watch tonight's 00Z model refreshes for resolution shifts before the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 8?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 8?
16°C 27%
15°C 25%
14°C 20%
17°C 17%
NEW
NEW
May 8, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
3%
14°C
20%
15°C
25%
16°C
27%
17°C
17%
18°C or higher
4%
16°C 27%
15°C 25%
14°C 20%
17°C 17%
NEW
NEW
May 8, 2026
8°C or below
$39 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$28 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$28 Vol.
1%
11°C
$910 Vol.
1%
12°C
$33 Vol.
2%
13°C
$462 Vol.
3%
14°C
$266 Vol.
20%
15°C
$296 Vol.
25%
16°C
$200 Vol.
27%
17°C
$456 Vol.
17%
18°C or higher
$477 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Warsaw's May 8 high temperature, with ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS clustering outcomes at 14–17°C amid a weak cold front ushering northerly winds and increased cloud cover that limits diurnal heating. Recent 48-hour updates from IMGW and international models show slight divergences: cooler 14°C runs emphasize persistent overcast skies and cool air advection, while 17°C scenarios hinge on partial clearing and stronger boundary layer mixing for enhanced insolation. Typical early May highs average 17–19°C historically, but current synoptic patterns favor moderation; watch tonight's 00Z model refreshes for resolution shifts before the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 6, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$3,197End Date
May 8, 2026Market Opened
May 6, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Warsaw's May 8 high temperature, with ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS clustering outcomes at 14–17°C amid a weak cold front ushering northerly winds and increased cloud cover that limits diurnal heating. Recent 48-hour updates from IMGW and international models show slight divergences: cooler 14°C runs emphasize persistent overcast skies and cool air advection, while 17°C scenarios hinge on partial clearing and stronger boundary layer mixing for enhanced insolation. Typical early May highs average 17–19°C historically, but current synoptic patterns favor moderation; watch tonight's 00Z model refreshes for resolution shifts before the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,197End Date
May 8, 2026Market Opened
May 6, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Warsaw's May 8 high temperature, with ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS clustering outcomes at 14–17°C amid a weak cold front ushering northerly winds and increased cloud cover that limits diurnal heating. Recent 48-hour updates from IMGW and international models show slight divergences: cooler 14°C runs emphasize persistent overcast skies and cool air advection, while 17°C scenarios hinge on partial clearing and stronger boundary layer mixing for enhanced insolation. Typical early May highs average 17–19°C historically, but current synoptic patterns favor moderation; watch tonight's 00Z model refreshes for resolution shifts before the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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