Latest ECMWF and IMGW forecast ensembles project Warsaw's highest temperature on May 6 clustering around 24-25°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge advecting warm continental air from the south, elevating market-implied odds to 47.5% for 26°C or higher and 36.5% for exactly 25°C. Yesterday's observed high of 27°C—well above the 19°C May climatological average—reflects this warm anomaly, with southerly winds and clear morning skies (current midday readings near 20°C) supporting further heating. However, model spread accounts for uncertainty from potential afternoon cloudiness and isolated showers, which could cap peaks below 26°C; real-time observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport will refine trajectories as the day progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 6?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 6?
24°C 58.9%
25°C 35%
26°C or higher 7%
$32,664 Vol.
$32,664 Vol.
May 6, 2026
24°C
58%
25°C
35%
26°C or higher
7%
24°C 58.9%
25°C 35%
26°C or higher 7%
$32,664 Vol.
$32,664 Vol.
May 6, 2026
24°C
$10,348 Vol.
58%
25°C
$3,719 Vol.
35%
26°C or higher
$6,431 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and IMGW forecast ensembles project Warsaw's highest temperature on May 6 clustering around 24-25°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge advecting warm continental air from the south, elevating market-implied odds to 47.5% for 26°C or higher and 36.5% for exactly 25°C. Yesterday's observed high of 27°C—well above the 19°C May climatological average—reflects this warm anomaly, with southerly winds and clear morning skies (current midday readings near 20°C) supporting further heating. However, model spread accounts for uncertainty from potential afternoon cloudiness and isolated showers, which could cap peaks below 26°C; real-time observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport will refine trajectories as the day progresses.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Volume
$32,664End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and IMGW forecast ensembles project Warsaw's highest temperature on May 6 clustering around 24-25°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge advecting warm continental air from the south, elevating market-implied odds to 47.5% for 26°C or higher and 36.5% for exactly 25°C. Yesterday's observed high of 27°C—well above the 19°C May climatological average—reflects this warm anomaly, with southerly winds and clear morning skies (current midday readings near 20°C) supporting further heating. However, model spread accounts for uncertainty from potential afternoon cloudiness and isolated showers, which could cap peaks below 26°C; real-time observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport will refine trajectories as the day progresses.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$32,664End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and IMGW forecast ensembles project Warsaw's highest temperature on May 6 clustering around 24-25°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge advecting warm continental air from the south, elevating market-implied odds to 47.5% for 26°C or higher and 36.5% for exactly 25°C. Yesterday's observed high of 27°C—well above the 19°C May climatological average—reflects this warm anomaly, with southerly winds and clear morning skies (current midday readings near 20°C) supporting further heating. However, model spread accounts for uncertainty from potential afternoon cloudiness and isolated showers, which could cap peaks below 26°C; real-time observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport will refine trajectories as the day progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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