Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models show a consensus for New York City highs clustering in the low to mid-60s°F on May 8, aligning with trader-implied probabilities heavily favoring 60-67°F outcomes amid a persistent upper-level trough over the Northeast suppressing warm air advection and promoting cloud cover. This setup yields temperatures below the climatological May 8 average of 69°F at Central Park, the likely resolution station, with recent 24-hour model runs exhibiting minimal shifts despite ENSO-neutral conditions offering no strong seasonal bias. Differentiating factors include timing of diurnal boundary layer heating, potential sea-breeze onshore flow cooling urban areas, and variable low-level moisture—small variances that explain the even split across 62-63°F, 64-65°F, and 66-67°F bins. Traders await 00Z/12Z updates tomorrow for refinements before the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on May 8?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 8?
64-65°F 31%
62-63°F 29%
66-67°F 24%
60-61°F 8%
NEW
NEW
May 8, 2026
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
3%
60-61°F
8%
62-63°F
29%
64-65°F
31%
66-67°F
24%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
1%
74°F or higher
1%
64-65°F 31%
62-63°F 29%
66-67°F 24%
60-61°F 8%
NEW
NEW
May 8, 2026
55°F or below
$443 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$22 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$9 Vol.
3%
60-61°F
$452 Vol.
8%
62-63°F
$73 Vol.
29%
64-65°F
$215 Vol.
31%
66-67°F
$64 Vol.
24%
68-69°F
$25 Vol.
6%
70-71°F
$12 Vol.
2%
72-73°F
$45 Vol.
1%
74°F or higher
$105 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models show a consensus for New York City highs clustering in the low to mid-60s°F on May 8, aligning with trader-implied probabilities heavily favoring 60-67°F outcomes amid a persistent upper-level trough over the Northeast suppressing warm air advection and promoting cloud cover. This setup yields temperatures below the climatological May 8 average of 69°F at Central Park, the likely resolution station, with recent 24-hour model runs exhibiting minimal shifts despite ENSO-neutral conditions offering no strong seasonal bias. Differentiating factors include timing of diurnal boundary layer heating, potential sea-breeze onshore flow cooling urban areas, and variable low-level moisture—small variances that explain the even split across 62-63°F, 64-65°F, and 66-67°F bins. Traders await 00Z/12Z updates tomorrow for refinements before the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 6, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
Volume
$1,177End Date
May 8, 2026Market Opened
May 6, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models show a consensus for New York City highs clustering in the low to mid-60s°F on May 8, aligning with trader-implied probabilities heavily favoring 60-67°F outcomes amid a persistent upper-level trough over the Northeast suppressing warm air advection and promoting cloud cover. This setup yields temperatures below the climatological May 8 average of 69°F at Central Park, the likely resolution station, with recent 24-hour model runs exhibiting minimal shifts despite ENSO-neutral conditions offering no strong seasonal bias. Differentiating factors include timing of diurnal boundary layer heating, potential sea-breeze onshore flow cooling urban areas, and variable low-level moisture—small variances that explain the even split across 62-63°F, 64-65°F, and 66-67°F bins. Traders await 00Z/12Z updates tomorrow for refinements before the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,177End Date
May 8, 2026Market Opened
May 6, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models show a consensus for New York City highs clustering in the low to mid-60s°F on May 8, aligning with trader-implied probabilities heavily favoring 60-67°F outcomes amid a persistent upper-level trough over the Northeast suppressing warm air advection and promoting cloud cover. This setup yields temperatures below the climatological May 8 average of 69°F at Central Park, the likely resolution station, with recent 24-hour model runs exhibiting minimal shifts despite ENSO-neutral conditions offering no strong seasonal bias. Differentiating factors include timing of diurnal boundary layer heating, potential sea-breeze onshore flow cooling urban areas, and variable low-level moisture—small variances that explain the even split across 62-63°F, 64-65°F, and 66-67°F bins. Traders await 00Z/12Z updates tomorrow for refinements before the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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