Official forecasts from Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN-CONAGUA) place Mexico City’s maximum temperature for June 5 in the 23–25 °C range, reflecting the primary driver behind the closely matched 24 °C (40.5 %) and 25 °C-or-higher (35.5 %) market shares. Increasing moisture advection ahead of the rainy season has produced greater cloud cover and scattered convective showers, which reduce surface heating relative to the clearer, warmer conditions recorded earlier in the month. Model consensus shows modest afternoon instability that could either cap temperatures near 24 °C or allow brief clearing to push readings to 25 °C, creating the observed balance in trader-implied odds. Updated model runs and afternoon observations will determine whether the outcome settles at the lower or upper end of the forecast envelope.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on June 5?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on June 5?
24°C 41%
25°C or higher 36%
23°C 18%
22°C 5.2%
$18,280 Vol.
$18,280 Vol.
Jun 5, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
5%
23°C
18%
24°C
41%
25°C or higher
36%
24°C 41%
25°C or higher 36%
23°C 18%
22°C 5.2%
$18,280 Vol.
$18,280 Vol.
Jun 5, 2026
15°C or below
$2,623 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$2,439 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$2,892 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,788 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$524 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,628 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,014 Vol.
1%
22°C
$2,369 Vol.
5%
23°C
$1,050 Vol.
18%
24°C
$765 Vol.
41%
25°C or higher
$1,249 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN-CONAGUA) place Mexico City’s maximum temperature for June 5 in the 23–25 °C range, reflecting the primary driver behind the closely matched 24 °C (40.5 %) and 25 °C-or-higher (35.5 %) market shares. Increasing moisture advection ahead of the rainy season has produced greater cloud cover and scattered convective showers, which reduce surface heating relative to the clearer, warmer conditions recorded earlier in the month. Model consensus shows modest afternoon instability that could either cap temperatures near 24 °C or allow brief clearing to push readings to 25 °C, creating the observed balance in trader-implied odds. Updated model runs and afternoon observations will determine whether the outcome settles at the lower or upper end of the forecast envelope.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 3, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$18,280End Date
Jun 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN-CONAGUA) place Mexico City’s maximum temperature for June 5 in the 23–25 °C range, reflecting the primary driver behind the closely matched 24 °C (40.5 %) and 25 °C-or-higher (35.5 %) market shares. Increasing moisture advection ahead of the rainy season has produced greater cloud cover and scattered convective showers, which reduce surface heating relative to the clearer, warmer conditions recorded earlier in the month. Model consensus shows modest afternoon instability that could either cap temperatures near 24 °C or allow brief clearing to push readings to 25 °C, creating the observed balance in trader-implied odds. Updated model runs and afternoon observations will determine whether the outcome settles at the lower or upper end of the forecast envelope.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$18,280End Date
Jun 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN-CONAGUA) place Mexico City’s maximum temperature for June 5 in the 23–25 °C range, reflecting the primary driver behind the closely matched 24 °C (40.5 %) and 25 °C-or-higher (35.5 %) market shares. Increasing moisture advection ahead of the rainy season has produced greater cloud cover and scattered convective showers, which reduce surface heating relative to the clearer, warmer conditions recorded earlier in the month. Model consensus shows modest afternoon instability that could either cap temperatures near 24 °C or allow brief clearing to push readings to 25 °C, creating the observed balance in trader-implied odds. Updated model runs and afternoon observations will determine whether the outcome settles at the lower or upper end of the forecast envelope.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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