India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts confirm a maximum temperature around 31°C for Lucknow on May 6 under partly cloudy skies with possible thundery developments and gusty winds, driving trader consensus to 97.2% implied probability for 34°C or below. This positioning stems from recent widespread thunderstorms and rainfall across Uttar Pradesh, which yesterday produced Lucknow's second-coolest May day in 57 years at 28°C—11.4°C below normal—due to persistent cloud cover inhibiting solar heating. Climatologically, May highs average 40°C+, but current atmospheric conditions favor suppression. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing rapid daytime warming to 35°C+, though model consensus and ongoing moisture reduce this risk; official IMD airport observations will resolve the market by evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lucknow on May 6?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on May 6?
34°C or below 99.9%
35°C <1%
36°C <1%
37°C <1%
$26,930 Vol.
$26,930 Vol.
34°C or below
100%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
34°C or below 99.9%
35°C <1%
36°C <1%
37°C <1%
$26,930 Vol.
$26,930 Vol.
34°C or below
100%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts confirm a maximum temperature around 31°C for Lucknow on May 6 under partly cloudy skies with possible thundery developments and gusty winds, driving trader consensus to 97.2% implied probability for 34°C or below. This positioning stems from recent widespread thunderstorms and rainfall across Uttar Pradesh, which yesterday produced Lucknow's second-coolest May day in 57 years at 28°C—11.4°C below normal—due to persistent cloud cover inhibiting solar heating. Climatologically, May highs average 40°C+, but current atmospheric conditions favor suppression. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing rapid daytime warming to 35°C+, though model consensus and ongoing moisture reduce this risk; official IMD airport observations will resolve the market by evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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