Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 32–34°C for Lagos's highest temperature on May 7, driven by NiMet's February 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction forecasting warmer-than-average daytime temperatures across southern Nigeria amid the rainy season onset, following recent days' highs near 34°C. Global models like ECMWF and GFS show forecast highs of 31–33°C, tempered by high humidity, sea breezes, and potential isolated thunderstorms that reduce solar insolation and cap peaks—differentiating lower outcomes (29–31°C) from higher ones via convective cloud cover intensity. Historical May averages hover at 31°C, with extremes rare; next NiMet daily outlook and model runs expected within 24 hours could refine this uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lagos on May 7?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 7?
33°C 34%
32°C 24%
31°C 17%
34°C 12%
NEW
$10,338 Vol.
NEW
$10,338 Vol.
May 7, 2026
27°C or below
2%
28°C
2%
29°C
4%
30°C
4%
31°C
17%
32°C
24%
33°C
34%
34°C
12%
35°C
3%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
33°C 34%
32°C 24%
31°C 17%
34°C 12%
NEW
$10,338 Vol.
NEW
$10,338 Vol.
May 7, 2026
27°C or below
$3,201 Vol.
2%
28°C
$558 Vol.
2%
29°C
$541 Vol.
4%
30°C
$447 Vol.
4%
31°C
$177 Vol.
17%
32°C
$471 Vol.
24%
33°C
$331 Vol.
34%
34°C
$558 Vol.
12%
35°C
$490 Vol.
3%
36°C
$1,615 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$1,954 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 32–34°C for Lagos's highest temperature on May 7, driven by NiMet's February 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction forecasting warmer-than-average daytime temperatures across southern Nigeria amid the rainy season onset, following recent days' highs near 34°C. Global models like ECMWF and GFS show forecast highs of 31–33°C, tempered by high humidity, sea breezes, and potential isolated thunderstorms that reduce solar insolation and cap peaks—differentiating lower outcomes (29–31°C) from higher ones via convective cloud cover intensity. Historical May averages hover at 31°C, with extremes rare; next NiMet daily outlook and model runs expected within 24 hours could refine this uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 5, 2026, 12:27 AM ET
Volume
$10,338End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 32–34°C for Lagos's highest temperature on May 7, driven by NiMet's February 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction forecasting warmer-than-average daytime temperatures across southern Nigeria amid the rainy season onset, following recent days' highs near 34°C. Global models like ECMWF and GFS show forecast highs of 31–33°C, tempered by high humidity, sea breezes, and potential isolated thunderstorms that reduce solar insolation and cap peaks—differentiating lower outcomes (29–31°C) from higher ones via convective cloud cover intensity. Historical May averages hover at 31°C, with extremes rare; next NiMet daily outlook and model runs expected within 24 hours could refine this uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,338End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 32–34°C for Lagos's highest temperature on May 7, driven by NiMet's February 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction forecasting warmer-than-average daytime temperatures across southern Nigeria amid the rainy season onset, following recent days' highs near 34°C. Global models like ECMWF and GFS show forecast highs of 31–33°C, tempered by high humidity, sea breezes, and potential isolated thunderstorms that reduce solar insolation and cap peaks—differentiating lower outcomes (29–31°C) from higher ones via convective cloud cover intensity. Historical May averages hover at 31°C, with extremes rare; next NiMet daily outlook and model runs expected within 24 hours could refine this uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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