Ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF project Lagos highs near 33–34°C on May 1, driving trader consensus with 34°C holding a slim 33.5% implied probability edge over 33°C at 25%, amid close competition reflecting model spread. Recent NiMet advisories highlight intensifying afternoon thunderstorms across southern Nigeria, including Lagos, potentially capping peaks through increased cloud cover and precipitation, while persistent April warmth—recent daily highs averaging 32–33°C—supports the upside bias. Differentiating factors include precise sea breeze timing, urban heat island effects in Lagos, and morning humidity levels; historical early-May climatology averages 31–32°C, but current neutral ENSO conditions allow variability. NiMet's next daily bulletin will refine guidance as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lagos on May 1?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 1?
34°C 32%
33°C 25%
35°C 14%
32°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 1, 2026
28°C or below
3%
29°C
2%
30°C
3%
31°C
10%
32°C
11%
33°C
25%
34°C
32%
35°C
14%
36°C
5%
37°C
2%
38°C or higher
<1%
34°C 32%
33°C 25%
35°C 14%
32°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 1, 2026
28°C or below
$1,118 Vol.
3%
29°C
$465 Vol.
2%
30°C
$214 Vol.
3%
31°C
$231 Vol.
10%
32°C
$521 Vol.
11%
33°C
$387 Vol.
25%
34°C
$229 Vol.
32%
35°C
$131 Vol.
14%
36°C
$557 Vol.
5%
37°C
$363 Vol.
2%
38°C or higher
$1,472 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF project Lagos highs near 33–34°C on May 1, driving trader consensus with 34°C holding a slim 33.5% implied probability edge over 33°C at 25%, amid close competition reflecting model spread. Recent NiMet advisories highlight intensifying afternoon thunderstorms across southern Nigeria, including Lagos, potentially capping peaks through increased cloud cover and precipitation, while persistent April warmth—recent daily highs averaging 32–33°C—supports the upside bias. Differentiating factors include precise sea breeze timing, urban heat island effects in Lagos, and morning humidity levels; historical early-May climatology averages 31–32°C, but current neutral ENSO conditions allow variability. NiMet's next daily bulletin will refine guidance as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$5,486End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF project Lagos highs near 33–34°C on May 1, driving trader consensus with 34°C holding a slim 33.5% implied probability edge over 33°C at 25%, amid close competition reflecting model spread. Recent NiMet advisories highlight intensifying afternoon thunderstorms across southern Nigeria, including Lagos, potentially capping peaks through increased cloud cover and precipitation, while persistent April warmth—recent daily highs averaging 32–33°C—supports the upside bias. Differentiating factors include precise sea breeze timing, urban heat island effects in Lagos, and morning humidity levels; historical early-May climatology averages 31–32°C, but current neutral ENSO conditions allow variability. NiMet's next daily bulletin will refine guidance as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,486End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF project Lagos highs near 33–34°C on May 1, driving trader consensus with 34°C holding a slim 33.5% implied probability edge over 33°C at 25%, amid close competition reflecting model spread. Recent NiMet advisories highlight intensifying afternoon thunderstorms across southern Nigeria, including Lagos, potentially capping peaks through increased cloud cover and precipitation, while persistent April warmth—recent daily highs averaging 32–33°C—supports the upside bias. Differentiating factors include precise sea breeze timing, urban heat island effects in Lagos, and morning humidity levels; historical early-May climatology averages 31–32°C, but current neutral ENSO conditions allow variability. NiMet's next daily bulletin will refine guidance as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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