Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a daytime high of 11°C (42.5% implied probability) or 12°C (32%) for Istanbul on May 1, driven by the latest ECMWF, GFS, and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) forecasts converging on 11-12°C amid an advancing low-pressure system bringing northerly winds, cloud cover, and rain. This marks a sharp drop from late April's 17-20°C highs, as warned by Istanbul's AKOM five days ago, reflecting persistent cool anomalies this spring with below-normal temperatures suppressing warming. Seasonal averages near 20°C provide stark contrast, underscoring the unusual weather pattern. Inherent model uncertainty persists, with final 00Z runs expected tonight potentially refining the outlook before NOAA's official Istanbul Airport measurement resolves the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 1?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 1?
11°C 43%
12°C 32%
10°C 21%
13°C 3.6%
NEW
$12,143 Vol.
NEW
$12,143 Vol.
May 1, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
21%
11°C
43%
12°C
32%
13°C
4%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
11°C 43%
12°C 32%
10°C 21%
13°C 3.6%
NEW
$12,143 Vol.
NEW
$12,143 Vol.
May 1, 2026
7°C or below
$3,128 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$1,416 Vol.
1%
9°C
$1,578 Vol.
2%
10°C
$690 Vol.
21%
11°C
$252 Vol.
43%
12°C
$553 Vol.
32%
13°C
$2,167 Vol.
4%
14°C
$1,418 Vol.
1%
15°C
$576 Vol.
1%
16°C
$439 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$209 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a daytime high of 11°C (42.5% implied probability) or 12°C (32%) for Istanbul on May 1, driven by the latest ECMWF, GFS, and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) forecasts converging on 11-12°C amid an advancing low-pressure system bringing northerly winds, cloud cover, and rain. This marks a sharp drop from late April's 17-20°C highs, as warned by Istanbul's AKOM five days ago, reflecting persistent cool anomalies this spring with below-normal temperatures suppressing warming. Seasonal averages near 20°C provide stark contrast, underscoring the unusual weather pattern. Inherent model uncertainty persists, with final 00Z runs expected tonight potentially refining the outlook before NOAA's official Istanbul Airport measurement resolves the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$12,143End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a daytime high of 11°C (42.5% implied probability) or 12°C (32%) for Istanbul on May 1, driven by the latest ECMWF, GFS, and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) forecasts converging on 11-12°C amid an advancing low-pressure system bringing northerly winds, cloud cover, and rain. This marks a sharp drop from late April's 17-20°C highs, as warned by Istanbul's AKOM five days ago, reflecting persistent cool anomalies this spring with below-normal temperatures suppressing warming. Seasonal averages near 20°C provide stark contrast, underscoring the unusual weather pattern. Inherent model uncertainty persists, with final 00Z runs expected tonight potentially refining the outlook before NOAA's official Istanbul Airport measurement resolves the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$12,143End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a daytime high of 11°C (42.5% implied probability) or 12°C (32%) for Istanbul on May 1, driven by the latest ECMWF, GFS, and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) forecasts converging on 11-12°C amid an advancing low-pressure system bringing northerly winds, cloud cover, and rain. This marks a sharp drop from late April's 17-20°C highs, as warned by Istanbul's AKOM five days ago, reflecting persistent cool anomalies this spring with below-normal temperatures suppressing warming. Seasonal averages near 20°C provide stark contrast, underscoring the unusual weather pattern. Inherent model uncertainty persists, with final 00Z runs expected tonight potentially refining the outlook before NOAA's official Istanbul Airport measurement resolves the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions