Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 11°C (43.5% implied probability) as Istanbul's highest temperature on May 1, closely followed by 12°C (32%) and 10°C (19.5%), driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs showing maximums clustered in this range at Istanbul Airport, the market's NOAA resolution point. A cold air mass advecting from the Balkans has ushered in unseasonably cool conditions, with persistent AM rain, thick overcast, and NE breezes at 15 mph suppressing solar insolation and daytime heating—far below May's typical 18–20°C highs. Recent April 30 updates confirm this pattern's hold, though rapid model shifts remain possible ahead of evening forecast refreshes from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 1?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 1?
11°C 44%
12°C 32%
10°C 19%
13°C 3.6%
NEW
$15,342 Vol.
NEW
$15,342 Vol.
May 1, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
19%
11°C
44%
12°C
32%
13°C
4%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
11°C 44%
12°C 32%
10°C 19%
13°C 3.6%
NEW
$15,342 Vol.
NEW
$15,342 Vol.
May 1, 2026
7°C or below
$3,490 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$1,956 Vol.
1%
9°C
$2,166 Vol.
2%
10°C
$838 Vol.
19%
11°C
$553 Vol.
44%
12°C
$652 Vol.
32%
13°C
$2,235 Vol.
4%
14°C
$1,720 Vol.
1%
15°C
$835 Vol.
1%
16°C
$573 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$326 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 11°C (43.5% implied probability) as Istanbul's highest temperature on May 1, closely followed by 12°C (32%) and 10°C (19.5%), driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs showing maximums clustered in this range at Istanbul Airport, the market's NOAA resolution point. A cold air mass advecting from the Balkans has ushered in unseasonably cool conditions, with persistent AM rain, thick overcast, and NE breezes at 15 mph suppressing solar insolation and daytime heating—far below May's typical 18–20°C highs. Recent April 30 updates confirm this pattern's hold, though rapid model shifts remain possible ahead of evening forecast refreshes from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$15,342End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 11°C (43.5% implied probability) as Istanbul's highest temperature on May 1, closely followed by 12°C (32%) and 10°C (19.5%), driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs showing maximums clustered in this range at Istanbul Airport, the market's NOAA resolution point. A cold air mass advecting from the Balkans has ushered in unseasonably cool conditions, with persistent AM rain, thick overcast, and NE breezes at 15 mph suppressing solar insolation and daytime heating—far below May's typical 18–20°C highs. Recent April 30 updates confirm this pattern's hold, though rapid model shifts remain possible ahead of evening forecast refreshes from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$15,342End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 11°C (43.5% implied probability) as Istanbul's highest temperature on May 1, closely followed by 12°C (32%) and 10°C (19.5%), driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs showing maximums clustered in this range at Istanbul Airport, the market's NOAA resolution point. A cold air mass advecting from the Balkans has ushered in unseasonably cool conditions, with persistent AM rain, thick overcast, and NE breezes at 15 mph suppressing solar insolation and daytime heating—far below May's typical 18–20°C highs. Recent April 30 updates confirm this pattern's hold, though rapid model shifts remain possible ahead of evening forecast refreshes from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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