Latest forecasts from sources including BBC Weather and timeanddate point to a high near 28–29°C in Istanbul on June 15 under sunny skies and light southerly or westerly winds, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. June climatology shows average daily highs of 25–27°C, so current conditions reflect modest warming from clear skies and limited marine influence. Small spreads between 28°C, 29°C, and 30°C arise from model differences in peak timing, urban heat-island effects, and possible afternoon sea-breeze moderation along the Bosphorus. Traders weigh these variables against official guidance, with the slight edge to 29°C reflecting consensus on modest exceedance of seasonal norms. Updated runs expected overnight could shift probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on June 15?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 15?
29°C 34%
30°C 25%
28°C 24%
27°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Jun 15, 2026
26°C or below
3%
27°C
8%
28°C
24%
29°C
34%
30°C
25%
31°C
8%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
29°C 34%
30°C 25%
28°C 24%
27°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Jun 15, 2026
26°C or below
$246 Vol.
3%
27°C
$446 Vol.
8%
28°C
$329 Vol.
24%
29°C
$393 Vol.
34%
30°C
$627 Vol.
25%
31°C
$553 Vol.
8%
32°C
$1,160 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$300 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$1,064 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$516 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$334 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecasts from sources including BBC Weather and timeanddate point to a high near 28–29°C in Istanbul on June 15 under sunny skies and light southerly or westerly winds, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. June climatology shows average daily highs of 25–27°C, so current conditions reflect modest warming from clear skies and limited marine influence. Small spreads between 28°C, 29°C, and 30°C arise from model differences in peak timing, urban heat-island effects, and possible afternoon sea-breeze moderation along the Bosphorus. Traders weigh these variables against official guidance, with the slight edge to 29°C reflecting consensus on modest exceedance of seasonal norms. Updated runs expected overnight could shift probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$5,938End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecasts from sources including BBC Weather and timeanddate point to a high near 28–29°C in Istanbul on June 15 under sunny skies and light southerly or westerly winds, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. June climatology shows average daily highs of 25–27°C, so current conditions reflect modest warming from clear skies and limited marine influence. Small spreads between 28°C, 29°C, and 30°C arise from model differences in peak timing, urban heat-island effects, and possible afternoon sea-breeze moderation along the Bosphorus. Traders weigh these variables against official guidance, with the slight edge to 29°C reflecting consensus on modest exceedance of seasonal norms. Updated runs expected overnight could shift probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,938End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecasts from sources including BBC Weather and timeanddate point to a high near 28–29°C in Istanbul on June 15 under sunny skies and light southerly or westerly winds, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. June climatology shows average daily highs of 25–27°C, so current conditions reflect modest warming from clear skies and limited marine influence. Small spreads between 28°C, 29°C, and 30°C arise from model differences in peak timing, urban heat-island effects, and possible afternoon sea-breeze moderation along the Bosphorus. Traders weigh these variables against official guidance, with the slight edge to 29°C reflecting consensus on modest exceedance of seasonal norms. Updated runs expected overnight could shift probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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