Recent forecasts from ensemble models including ECMWF and GFS point to a daily maximum in Istanbul around 25–27°C on June 16, 2026, as a warming trend replaces earlier cool northerly flow with milder conditions and greater solar heating. This aligns closely with mid-June climatology, where average highs reach 25–26°C, though model spread on cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and exact wind direction creates uncertainty that keeps the 25°C, 26°C, and 27°C outcomes tightly bunched in trader pricing. Official guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and updated runs ahead of the 48-hour mark will further refine the peak reading, which resolves on verified observations rather than any single model projection.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on June 16?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 16?
25°C 32%
26°C 28%
27°C 20%
24°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Jun 16, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
4%
24°C
12%
25°C
32%
26°C
28%
27°C
20%
28°C
5%
29°C
2%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 32%
26°C 28%
27°C 20%
24°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Jun 16, 2026
21°C or below
$291 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$491 Vol.
2%
23°C
$494 Vol.
4%
24°C
$429 Vol.
12%
25°C
$123 Vol.
32%
26°C
$318 Vol.
28%
27°C
$194 Vol.
20%
28°C
$79 Vol.
5%
29°C
$129 Vol.
2%
30°C
$200 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$1,092 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from ensemble models including ECMWF and GFS point to a daily maximum in Istanbul around 25–27°C on June 16, 2026, as a warming trend replaces earlier cool northerly flow with milder conditions and greater solar heating. This aligns closely with mid-June climatology, where average highs reach 25–26°C, though model spread on cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and exact wind direction creates uncertainty that keeps the 25°C, 26°C, and 27°C outcomes tightly bunched in trader pricing. Official guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and updated runs ahead of the 48-hour mark will further refine the peak reading, which resolves on verified observations rather than any single model projection.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 14, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$3,746End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Jun 14, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from ensemble models including ECMWF and GFS point to a daily maximum in Istanbul around 25–27°C on June 16, 2026, as a warming trend replaces earlier cool northerly flow with milder conditions and greater solar heating. This aligns closely with mid-June climatology, where average highs reach 25–26°C, though model spread on cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and exact wind direction creates uncertainty that keeps the 25°C, 26°C, and 27°C outcomes tightly bunched in trader pricing. Official guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and updated runs ahead of the 48-hour mark will further refine the peak reading, which resolves on verified observations rather than any single model projection.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,746End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Jun 14, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from ensemble models including ECMWF and GFS point to a daily maximum in Istanbul around 25–27°C on June 16, 2026, as a warming trend replaces earlier cool northerly flow with milder conditions and greater solar heating. This aligns closely with mid-June climatology, where average highs reach 25–26°C, though model spread on cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and exact wind direction creates uncertainty that keeps the 25°C, 26°C, and 27°C outcomes tightly bunched in trader pricing. Official guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and updated runs ahead of the 48-hour mark will further refine the peak reading, which resolves on verified observations rather than any single model projection.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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