**Forecast models from the Met Office, BBC Weather, and timeanddate indicate a sunny day with a maximum temperature near 28°C for Istanbul on June 15, 2026.** This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting toward 28–30°C outcomes, reflecting mild early-summer conditions moderated by the Bosphorus and Sea of Marmara. Recent model runs show limited daytime heating under high pressure with light winds, keeping readings below the seasonal upper range of 30–32°C. Historical June climatology places average highs around 25–26°C, so current guidance represents a modestly above-average but not extreme day. Traders appear to be pricing in the consensus forecast range while leaving room for small upward revisions from the final observational data. No major model disagreements or rapid warming signals have emerged in the latest updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on June 15?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 15?
29°C 42%
30°C 22%
28°C 21%
31°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Jun 15, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
21%
29°C
42%
30°C
22%
31°C
11%
32°C
2%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
29°C 42%
30°C 22%
28°C 21%
31°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Jun 15, 2026
26°C or below
$864 Vol.
1%
27°C
$474 Vol.
3%
28°C
$358 Vol.
21%
29°C
$594 Vol.
42%
30°C
$811 Vol.
22%
31°C
$766 Vol.
11%
32°C
$1,485 Vol.
2%
33°C
$854 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$1,069 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$516 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$1,043 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the Met Office, BBC Weather, and timeanddate indicate a sunny day with a maximum temperature near 28°C for Istanbul on June 15, 2026.** This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting toward 28–30°C outcomes, reflecting mild early-summer conditions moderated by the Bosphorus and Sea of Marmara. Recent model runs show limited daytime heating under high pressure with light winds, keeping readings below the seasonal upper range of 30–32°C. Historical June climatology places average highs around 25–26°C, so current guidance represents a modestly above-average but not extreme day. Traders appear to be pricing in the consensus forecast range while leaving room for small upward revisions from the final observational data. No major model disagreements or rapid warming signals have emerged in the latest updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$8,424End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the Met Office, BBC Weather, and timeanddate indicate a sunny day with a maximum temperature near 28°C for Istanbul on June 15, 2026.** This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting toward 28–30°C outcomes, reflecting mild early-summer conditions moderated by the Bosphorus and Sea of Marmara. Recent model runs show limited daytime heating under high pressure with light winds, keeping readings below the seasonal upper range of 30–32°C. Historical June climatology places average highs around 25–26°C, so current guidance represents a modestly above-average but not extreme day. Traders appear to be pricing in the consensus forecast range while leaving room for small upward revisions from the final observational data. No major model disagreements or rapid warming signals have emerged in the latest updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,424End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from the Met Office, BBC Weather, and timeanddate indicate a sunny day with a maximum temperature near 28°C for Istanbul on June 15, 2026.** This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting toward 28–30°C outcomes, reflecting mild early-summer conditions moderated by the Bosphorus and Sea of Marmara. Recent model runs show limited daytime heating under high pressure with light winds, keeping readings below the seasonal upper range of 30–32°C. Historical June climatology places average highs around 25–26°C, so current guidance represents a modestly above-average but not extreme day. Traders appear to be pricing in the consensus forecast range while leaving room for small upward revisions from the final observational data. No major model disagreements or rapid warming signals have emerged in the latest updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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