**Forecast models and current conditions point to a maximum temperature of 28–30°C in Hong Kong on June 15, 2026, as the most probable range, consistent with market-implied odds favoring 29°C (46%) and 30°C (36%).** Persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and thundery showers expected from the monsoon trough are the main drivers limiting solar heating and convective buildup. Official outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory note above-normal seasonal temperatures for June–August amid ongoing climate warming trends, yet daily guidance highlights overcast skies and flash-flood risk on the 15th that typically cap afternoon peaks 2–4°C below clear-sky June averages of 30–31°C. Numerical weather models show strong consensus on limited insolation and moisture-laden air masses suppressing the diurnal temperature range, with urban heat-island effects in the city center providing only modest upward bias. Recent updates emphasize heavy rainfall potential, which traders interpret as a moderating influence that reduces the chance of exceeding 31°C while keeping outcomes below 28°C unlikely. Updated model runs and any Hong Kong Observatory briefings on steering patterns or tropical moisture influx will be the key near-term catalysts for shifts in these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?
29°C 44%
30°C 36%
31°C 8.6%
28°C 7%
NUEVO
$46,316 Vol.
NUEVO
$46,316 Vol.
15 jun 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
7%
29°C
44%
30°C
36%
31°C
9%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
29°C 44%
30°C 36%
31°C 8.6%
28°C 7%
NUEVO
$46,316 Vol.
NUEVO
$46,316 Vol.
15 jun 2026
23°C or below
$934 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$298 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$3,040 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$3,926 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$20,841 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$6,050 Vol.
7%
29°C
$4,817 Vol.
44%
30°C
$3,957 Vol.
36%
31°C
$3,841 Vol.
9%
32°C
$1,554 Vol.
1%
33°C or higher
$1,272 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Forecast models and current conditions point to a maximum temperature of 28–30°C in Hong Kong on June 15, 2026, as the most probable range, consistent with market-implied odds favoring 29°C (46%) and 30°C (36%).** Persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and thundery showers expected from the monsoon trough are the main drivers limiting solar heating and convective buildup. Official outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory note above-normal seasonal temperatures for June–August amid ongoing climate warming trends, yet daily guidance highlights overcast skies and flash-flood risk on the 15th that typically cap afternoon peaks 2–4°C below clear-sky June averages of 30–31°C.
Numerical weather models show strong consensus on limited insolation and moisture-laden air masses suppressing the diurnal temperature range, with urban heat-island effects in the city center providing only modest upward bias. Recent updates emphasize heavy rainfall potential, which traders interpret as a moderating influence that reduces the chance of exceeding 31°C while keeping outcomes below 28°C unlikely. Updated model runs and any Hong Kong Observatory briefings on steering patterns or tropical moisture influx will be the key near-term catalysts for shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jun 13, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$46,316Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Forecast models and current conditions point to a maximum temperature of 28–30°C in Hong Kong on June 15, 2026, as the most probable range, consistent with market-implied odds favoring 29°C (46%) and 30°C (36%).** Persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and thundery showers expected from the monsoon trough are the main drivers limiting solar heating and convective buildup. Official outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory note above-normal seasonal temperatures for June–August amid ongoing climate warming trends, yet daily guidance highlights overcast skies and flash-flood risk on the 15th that typically cap afternoon peaks 2–4°C below clear-sky June averages of 30–31°C.
Numerical weather models show strong consensus on limited insolation and moisture-laden air masses suppressing the diurnal temperature range, with urban heat-island effects in the city center providing only modest upward bias. Recent updates emphasize heavy rainfall potential, which traders interpret as a moderating influence that reduces the chance of exceeding 31°C while keeping outcomes below 28°C unlikely. Updated model runs and any Hong Kong Observatory briefings on steering patterns or tropical moisture influx will be the key near-term catalysts for shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$46,316Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and current conditions point to a maximum temperature of 28–30°C in Hong Kong on June 15, 2026, as the most probable range, consistent with market-implied odds favoring 29°C (46%) and 30°C (36%).** Persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and thundery showers expected from the monsoon trough are the main drivers limiting solar heating and convective buildup. Official outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory note above-normal seasonal temperatures for June–August amid ongoing climate warming trends, yet daily guidance highlights overcast skies and flash-flood risk on the 15th that typically cap afternoon peaks 2–4°C below clear-sky June averages of 30–31°C. Numerical weather models show strong consensus on limited insolation and moisture-laden air masses suppressing the diurnal temperature range, with urban heat-island effects in the city center providing only modest upward bias. Recent updates emphasize heavy rainfall potential, which traders interpret as a moderating influence that reduces the chance of exceeding 31°C while keeping outcomes below 28°C unlikely. Updated model runs and any Hong Kong Observatory briefings on steering patterns or tropical moisture influx will be the key near-term catalysts for shifts in these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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