Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching 28°C or higher on May 8, driven by ensemble forecast models projecting daytime highs of 29–32°C amid the city's subtropical monsoon climate and seasonal warming trend. Recent China Meteorological Administration reports noted 30°C highs earlier this week, aligning with May climatological averages of 29.3°C and increasing solar insolation as summer approaches. Lower outcomes like 26–27°C at 36.5% reflect minor model uncertainty from potential patchy rain or cloud cover suppressing peaks, though historical May 8 data rarely dips below 28°C. Watch for daily forecast updates from CMA and global models like ECMWF, with resolution based on official observations at Baiyun International Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on May 8?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 8?
28°C or higher 44%
27°C 28%
26°C 20%
25°C 9%
NEW
NEW
May 8, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
6%
25°C
9%
26°C
20%
27°C
28%
28°C or higher
44%
28°C or higher 44%
27°C 28%
26°C 20%
25°C 9%
NEW
NEW
May 8, 2026
18°C or below
$749 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$155 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$120 Vol.
1%
23°C
$48 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
6%
25°C
$0 Vol.
9%
26°C
$48 Vol.
20%
27°C
$26 Vol.
28%
28°C or higher
$224 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching 28°C or higher on May 8, driven by ensemble forecast models projecting daytime highs of 29–32°C amid the city's subtropical monsoon climate and seasonal warming trend. Recent China Meteorological Administration reports noted 30°C highs earlier this week, aligning with May climatological averages of 29.3°C and increasing solar insolation as summer approaches. Lower outcomes like 26–27°C at 36.5% reflect minor model uncertainty from potential patchy rain or cloud cover suppressing peaks, though historical May 8 data rarely dips below 28°C. Watch for daily forecast updates from CMA and global models like ECMWF, with resolution based on official observations at Baiyun International Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 6, 2026, 12:16 AM ET
Volume
$1,358End Date
May 8, 2026Market Opened
May 6, 2026, 12:16 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching 28°C or higher on May 8, driven by ensemble forecast models projecting daytime highs of 29–32°C amid the city's subtropical monsoon climate and seasonal warming trend. Recent China Meteorological Administration reports noted 30°C highs earlier this week, aligning with May climatological averages of 29.3°C and increasing solar insolation as summer approaches. Lower outcomes like 26–27°C at 36.5% reflect minor model uncertainty from potential patchy rain or cloud cover suppressing peaks, though historical May 8 data rarely dips below 28°C. Watch for daily forecast updates from CMA and global models like ECMWF, with resolution based on official observations at Baiyun International Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,358End Date
May 8, 2026Market Opened
May 6, 2026, 12:16 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching 28°C or higher on May 8, driven by ensemble forecast models projecting daytime highs of 29–32°C amid the city's subtropical monsoon climate and seasonal warming trend. Recent China Meteorological Administration reports noted 30°C highs earlier this week, aligning with May climatological averages of 29.3°C and increasing solar insolation as summer approaches. Lower outcomes like 26–27°C at 36.5% reflect minor model uncertainty from potential patchy rain or cloud cover suppressing peaks, though historical May 8 data rarely dips below 28°C. Watch for daily forecast updates from CMA and global models like ECMWF, with resolution based on official observations at Baiyun International Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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