Trader consensus favors 81°F or below at 77% implied probability for Austin's highest temperature today, driven by National Weather Service forecasts showing persistent overcast skies and scattered thunderstorms capping peaks around 80°F amid Gulf moisture inflow. Current observations at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport and Camp Mabry report midday readings in the mid-70s under mostly cloudy conditions, well below the May climatological normal of 84°F, with southerly winds at 8-10 mph limiting mixing. Recent model ensembles from NOAA highlight reduced insolation from high cloud decks and 30-55% precipitation chances through afternoon convection, echoing a cool, wet early May pattern influenced by emerging El Niño conditions (61% chance May-July per Climate Prediction Center). Afternoon forecast refinements could adjust for any clearing, but uncertainty remains high as resolution nears via official station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on May 6?
Highest temperature in Austin on May 6?
81°F or below 65.5%
82-83°F 16%
84-85°F 8.1%
86-87°F 1.3%
$62,164 Vol.
$62,164 Vol.
May 6, 2026
81°F or below
66%
82-83°F
17%
84-85°F
8%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98-99°F
<1%
100°F or higher
<1%
81°F or below 65.5%
82-83°F 16%
84-85°F 8.1%
86-87°F 1.3%
$62,164 Vol.
$62,164 Vol.
May 6, 2026
81°F or below
$6,544 Vol.
66%
82-83°F
$4,627 Vol.
17%
84-85°F
$5,194 Vol.
8%
86-87°F
$6,564 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$7,559 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$6,516 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$4,756 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$6,772 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$6,503 Vol.
<1%
98-99°F
$5,507 Vol.
<1%
100°F or higher
$1,708 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors 81°F or below at 77% implied probability for Austin's highest temperature today, driven by National Weather Service forecasts showing persistent overcast skies and scattered thunderstorms capping peaks around 80°F amid Gulf moisture inflow. Current observations at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport and Camp Mabry report midday readings in the mid-70s under mostly cloudy conditions, well below the May climatological normal of 84°F, with southerly winds at 8-10 mph limiting mixing. Recent model ensembles from NOAA highlight reduced insolation from high cloud decks and 30-55% precipitation chances through afternoon convection, echoing a cool, wet early May pattern influenced by emerging El Niño conditions (61% chance May-July per Climate Prediction Center). Afternoon forecast refinements could adjust for any clearing, but uncertainty remains high as resolution nears via official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 1:04 PM ET
Volume
$62,164End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors 81°F or below at 77% implied probability for Austin's highest temperature today, driven by National Weather Service forecasts showing persistent overcast skies and scattered thunderstorms capping peaks around 80°F amid Gulf moisture inflow. Current observations at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport and Camp Mabry report midday readings in the mid-70s under mostly cloudy conditions, well below the May climatological normal of 84°F, with southerly winds at 8-10 mph limiting mixing. Recent model ensembles from NOAA highlight reduced insolation from high cloud decks and 30-55% precipitation chances through afternoon convection, echoing a cool, wet early May pattern influenced by emerging El Niño conditions (61% chance May-July per Climate Prediction Center). Afternoon forecast refinements could adjust for any clearing, but uncertainty remains high as resolution nears via official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$62,164End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 81°F or below at 77% implied probability for Austin's highest temperature today, driven by National Weather Service forecasts showing persistent overcast skies and scattered thunderstorms capping peaks around 80°F amid Gulf moisture inflow. Current observations at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport and Camp Mabry report midday readings in the mid-70s under mostly cloudy conditions, well below the May climatological normal of 84°F, with southerly winds at 8-10 mph limiting mixing. Recent model ensembles from NOAA highlight reduced insolation from high cloud decks and 30-55% precipitation chances through afternoon convection, echoing a cool, wet early May pattern influenced by emerging El Niño conditions (61% chance May-July per Climate Prediction Center). Afternoon forecast refinements could adjust for any clearing, but uncertainty remains high as resolution nears via official station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions