Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 9°C (34.5%) and 8°C (33.5%) as the highest temperature at Ankara's Esenboğa International Airport on May 2, driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), ECMWF, and GFS model runs projecting daytime highs of 8–10°C amid a persistent cold air mass. Late April's unseasonal snowfall has ushered in northerly winds channeling Arctic air into central Turkey, with overcast skies and rain showers—forecast at 67% probability—suppressing solar heating and limiting insolation. Ensemble model spreads reflect uncertainty in precipitation intensity, where lighter rain could allow slight warming to 9°C, while heavier showers favor 8°C; this contrasts sharply with early May climatological averages near 20°C. Watch for afternoon MGM updates and new 12z model cycles, as short-range forecast refinements could shift the balance before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on May 2?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 2?
9°C 35%
8°C 34%
10°C 15%
7°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 2, 2026
3°C or below
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
1%
6°C
3%
7°C
11%
8°C
34%
9°C
35%
10°C
15%
11°C
4%
12°C
1%
13°C or higher
1%
9°C 35%
8°C 34%
10°C 15%
7°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 2, 2026
3°C or below
$1,670 Vol.
<1%
4°C
$1,889 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$1,002 Vol.
1%
6°C
$243 Vol.
3%
7°C
$334 Vol.
11%
8°C
$500 Vol.
34%
9°C
$410 Vol.
35%
10°C
$356 Vol.
15%
11°C
$302 Vol.
4%
12°C
$708 Vol.
1%
13°C or higher
$294 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 9°C (34.5%) and 8°C (33.5%) as the highest temperature at Ankara's Esenboğa International Airport on May 2, driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), ECMWF, and GFS model runs projecting daytime highs of 8–10°C amid a persistent cold air mass. Late April's unseasonal snowfall has ushered in northerly winds channeling Arctic air into central Turkey, with overcast skies and rain showers—forecast at 67% probability—suppressing solar heating and limiting insolation. Ensemble model spreads reflect uncertainty in precipitation intensity, where lighter rain could allow slight warming to 9°C, while heavier showers favor 8°C; this contrasts sharply with early May climatological averages near 20°C. Watch for afternoon MGM updates and new 12z model cycles, as short-range forecast refinements could shift the balance before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$7,684End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 9°C (34.5%) and 8°C (33.5%) as the highest temperature at Ankara's Esenboğa International Airport on May 2, driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), ECMWF, and GFS model runs projecting daytime highs of 8–10°C amid a persistent cold air mass. Late April's unseasonal snowfall has ushered in northerly winds channeling Arctic air into central Turkey, with overcast skies and rain showers—forecast at 67% probability—suppressing solar heating and limiting insolation. Ensemble model spreads reflect uncertainty in precipitation intensity, where lighter rain could allow slight warming to 9°C, while heavier showers favor 8°C; this contrasts sharply with early May climatological averages near 20°C. Watch for afternoon MGM updates and new 12z model cycles, as short-range forecast refinements could shift the balance before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,684End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 9°C (34.5%) and 8°C (33.5%) as the highest temperature at Ankara's Esenboğa International Airport on May 2, driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), ECMWF, and GFS model runs projecting daytime highs of 8–10°C amid a persistent cold air mass. Late April's unseasonal snowfall has ushered in northerly winds channeling Arctic air into central Turkey, with overcast skies and rain showers—forecast at 67% probability—suppressing solar heating and limiting insolation. Ensemble model spreads reflect uncertainty in precipitation intensity, where lighter rain could allow slight warming to 9°C, while heavier showers favor 8°C; this contrasts sharply with early May climatological averages near 20°C. Watch for afternoon MGM updates and new 12z model cycles, as short-range forecast refinements could shift the balance before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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