Trader consensus favors 15°C at 34% implied probability for Ankara's highest temperature on May 1, closely trailed by 16°C (28%) and 17°C (24%), driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance and global model ensembles projecting mid-teens Celsius highs amid persistent northerly airflow and scattered clouds following a cool late-April pattern. Key differentiators include timing of diurnal boundary layer heating versus low-level moisture inhibiting insolation—ECMWF ensembles lean cooler toward 15°C with stratiform clouds, while GFS shows potential for 16-17°C if breaks allow stronger solar forcing. Ankara's continental climate brings high spring variability, with historical May 1 highs averaging 18°C at Esenboğa Airport station, but recent subnormal April readings (e.g., 16-20°C peaks) suggest anomaly persistence. Monitor MGM's evening update and morning soundings for shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on May 1?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 1?
15°C 34%
16°C 28%
17°C 23%
18°C 8%
NEW
$21,919 Vol.
NEW
$21,919 Vol.
May 1, 2026
11°C or below
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
7%
15°C
34%
16°C
28%
17°C
23%
18°C
8%
19°C
2%
20°C
1%
21°C or higher
<1%
15°C 34%
16°C 28%
17°C 23%
18°C 8%
NEW
$21,919 Vol.
NEW
$21,919 Vol.
May 1, 2026
11°C or below
$993 Vol.
1%
12°C
$1,049 Vol.
1%
13°C
$1,189 Vol.
2%
14°C
$3,076 Vol.
7%
15°C
$2,036 Vol.
34%
16°C
$1,291 Vol.
28%
17°C
$1,540 Vol.
23%
18°C
$3,277 Vol.
8%
19°C
$2,643 Vol.
2%
20°C
$1,304 Vol.
1%
21°C or higher
$4,511 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors 15°C at 34% implied probability for Ankara's highest temperature on May 1, closely trailed by 16°C (28%) and 17°C (24%), driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance and global model ensembles projecting mid-teens Celsius highs amid persistent northerly airflow and scattered clouds following a cool late-April pattern. Key differentiators include timing of diurnal boundary layer heating versus low-level moisture inhibiting insolation—ECMWF ensembles lean cooler toward 15°C with stratiform clouds, while GFS shows potential for 16-17°C if breaks allow stronger solar forcing. Ankara's continental climate brings high spring variability, with historical May 1 highs averaging 18°C at Esenboğa Airport station, but recent subnormal April readings (e.g., 16-20°C peaks) suggest anomaly persistence. Monitor MGM's evening update and morning soundings for shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$21,919End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors 15°C at 34% implied probability for Ankara's highest temperature on May 1, closely trailed by 16°C (28%) and 17°C (24%), driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance and global model ensembles projecting mid-teens Celsius highs amid persistent northerly airflow and scattered clouds following a cool late-April pattern. Key differentiators include timing of diurnal boundary layer heating versus low-level moisture inhibiting insolation—ECMWF ensembles lean cooler toward 15°C with stratiform clouds, while GFS shows potential for 16-17°C if breaks allow stronger solar forcing. Ankara's continental climate brings high spring variability, with historical May 1 highs averaging 18°C at Esenboğa Airport station, but recent subnormal April readings (e.g., 16-20°C peaks) suggest anomaly persistence. Monitor MGM's evening update and morning soundings for shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$21,919End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 15°C at 34% implied probability for Ankara's highest temperature on May 1, closely trailed by 16°C (28%) and 17°C (24%), driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance and global model ensembles projecting mid-teens Celsius highs amid persistent northerly airflow and scattered clouds following a cool late-April pattern. Key differentiators include timing of diurnal boundary layer heating versus low-level moisture inhibiting insolation—ECMWF ensembles lean cooler toward 15°C with stratiform clouds, while GFS shows potential for 16-17°C if breaks allow stronger solar forcing. Ankara's continental climate brings high spring variability, with historical May 1 highs averaging 18°C at Esenboğa Airport station, but recent subnormal April readings (e.g., 16-20°C peaks) suggest anomaly persistence. Monitor MGM's evening update and morning soundings for shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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