Latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble runs project Ankara's highest temperature on May 1 clustering at 15-17°C, driven by a persistent upper-level trough ushering cool mid-level air (around 0°C at 850 hPa) and widespread cloud cover limiting solar insolation and diurnal heating. Trader-implied probabilities reflect this tight model consensus—15°C at 33.5%, 16°C at 28.5%, 17°C at 22.5%—with differentiation hinging on subtle factors like afternoon cloud breaks, light showers suppressing peaks below historical early-May averages of 18-20°C, and boundary-layer winds aiding or hindering warm-air advection. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists until final MGM bulletins and station observations resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on May 1?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 1?
15°C 34%
16°C 28%
17°C 22%
18°C 9%
NEW
$26,337 Vol.
NEW
$26,337 Vol.
May 1, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
7%
15°C
34%
16°C
28%
17°C
22%
18°C
9%
19°C
2%
20°C
1%
21°C or higher
<1%
15°C 34%
16°C 28%
17°C 22%
18°C 9%
NEW
$26,337 Vol.
NEW
$26,337 Vol.
May 1, 2026
11°C or below
$1,320 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,324 Vol.
1%
13°C
$1,633 Vol.
1%
14°C
$3,800 Vol.
7%
15°C
$2,816 Vol.
34%
16°C
$1,682 Vol.
28%
17°C
$2,007 Vol.
22%
18°C
$3,792 Vol.
9%
19°C
$3,416 Vol.
2%
20°C
$1,571 Vol.
1%
21°C or higher
$5,360 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble runs project Ankara's highest temperature on May 1 clustering at 15-17°C, driven by a persistent upper-level trough ushering cool mid-level air (around 0°C at 850 hPa) and widespread cloud cover limiting solar insolation and diurnal heating. Trader-implied probabilities reflect this tight model consensus—15°C at 33.5%, 16°C at 28.5%, 17°C at 22.5%—with differentiation hinging on subtle factors like afternoon cloud breaks, light showers suppressing peaks below historical early-May averages of 18-20°C, and boundary-layer winds aiding or hindering warm-air advection. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists until final MGM bulletins and station observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$26,337End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble runs project Ankara's highest temperature on May 1 clustering at 15-17°C, driven by a persistent upper-level trough ushering cool mid-level air (around 0°C at 850 hPa) and widespread cloud cover limiting solar insolation and diurnal heating. Trader-implied probabilities reflect this tight model consensus—15°C at 33.5%, 16°C at 28.5%, 17°C at 22.5%—with differentiation hinging on subtle factors like afternoon cloud breaks, light showers suppressing peaks below historical early-May averages of 18-20°C, and boundary-layer winds aiding or hindering warm-air advection. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists until final MGM bulletins and station observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$26,337End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble runs project Ankara's highest temperature on May 1 clustering at 15-17°C, driven by a persistent upper-level trough ushering cool mid-level air (around 0°C at 850 hPa) and widespread cloud cover limiting solar insolation and diurnal heating. Trader-implied probabilities reflect this tight model consensus—15°C at 33.5%, 16°C at 28.5%, 17°C at 22.5%—with differentiation hinging on subtle factors like afternoon cloud breaks, light showers suppressing peaks below historical early-May averages of 18-20°C, and boundary-layer winds aiding or hindering warm-air advection. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists until final MGM bulletins and station observations resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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