Friedrich Merz leads a CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition formed after the 2025 federal election, with the next scheduled Bundestag vote in 2029. Despite record-low approval ratings around 15-19 percent and coalition strains over economic reforms, welfare changes, and fiscal priorities, no successful confidence vote, mass defections, or resignation has occurred as of mid-2026. Merz has advanced defense budget increases and EU policy initiatives without triggering procedural collapse mechanisms. Trader consensus at 79 percent probability he remains in office through 2026 reflects the high barriers to early removal in Germany's parliamentary system, where premature dissolution requires specific Bundestag action that remains absent despite internal tensions and public dissatisfaction.