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World·Germany

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

icon for Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
World·Germany

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

14% chance
Polymarket

$145,375 Vol.

14% chance
Polymarket

$145,375 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition has maintained stability despite recent internal tensions over economic reforms and energy policy, with public disputes in mid-April resolved without triggering a no-confidence vote or snap election. Polls show Merz's personal approval at historic lows around 19%, amid 6.4% unemployment and economic stagnation, yet his party retains a national lead and no major defections have occurred. Coalition partners affirmed unity following spats between SPD leader Lars Klingbeil and CDU figures, underscoring procedural hurdles to ousting a chancellor before the 2029 Bundestag election. Traders' 86.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this lack of imminent political catalysts, with historical precedent favoring coalition endurance absent a full collapse.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$145,375
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition has maintained stability despite recent internal tensions over economic reforms and energy policy, with public disputes in mid-April resolved without triggering a no-confidence vote or snap election. Polls show Merz's personal approval at historic lows around 19%, amid 6.4% unemployment and economic stagnation, yet his party retains a national lead and no major defections have occurred. Coalition partners affirmed unity following spats between SPD leader Lars Klingbeil and CDU figures, underscoring procedural hurdles to ousting a chancellor before the 2029 Bundestag election. Traders' 86.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this lack of imminent political catalysts, with historical precedent favoring coalition endurance absent a full collapse.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$145,375
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 14% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 14¢, the market collectively assigns a 14% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?" has generated $145.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?" is 14% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 14% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.