Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations and Iran's refusal to grant IAEA inspectors access to its four declared enrichment facilities. A February 2026 IAEA report (GOV/2026/8) confirmed Tehran has not suspended enrichment-related activities, leaving the whereabouts of its 440.9 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—unverified amid post-2025 US strikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan. Recent April developments, including Iran's rejection of US demands for material transfers and long-term freezes (15-20 years vs. Tehran's five-year offer), have widened the diplomatic impasse, with no breakthroughs or scheduled talks signaling an agreement before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Irán acuerda poner fin al enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 30 de junio?
¿Irán acuerda poner fin al enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 30 de junio?
Sí
$662,748 Vol.
$662,748 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$662,748 Vol.
$662,748 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations and Iran's refusal to grant IAEA inspectors access to its four declared enrichment facilities. A February 2026 IAEA report (GOV/2026/8) confirmed Tehran has not suspended enrichment-related activities, leaving the whereabouts of its 440.9 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—unverified amid post-2025 US strikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan. Recent April developments, including Iran's rejection of US demands for material transfers and long-term freezes (15-20 years vs. Tehran's five-year offer), have widened the diplomatic impasse, with no breakthroughs or scheduled talks signaling an agreement before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ET
Volumen
$662,748Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations and Iran's refusal to grant IAEA inspectors access to its four declared enrichment facilities. A February 2026 IAEA report (GOV/2026/8) confirmed Tehran has not suspended enrichment-related activities, leaving the whereabouts of its 440.9 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—unverified amid post-2025 US strikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan. Recent April developments, including Iran's rejection of US demands for material transfers and long-term freezes (15-20 years vs. Tehran's five-year offer), have widened the diplomatic impasse, with no breakthroughs or scheduled talks signaling an agreement before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$662,748Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations and Iran's refusal to grant IAEA inspectors access to its four declared enrichment facilities. A February 2026 IAEA report (GOV/2026/8) confirmed Tehran has not suspended enrichment-related activities, leaving the whereabouts of its 440.9 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—unverified amid post-2025 US strikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan. Recent April developments, including Iran's rejection of US demands for material transfers and long-term freezes (15-20 years vs. Tehran's five-year offer), have widened the diplomatic impasse, with no breakthroughs or scheduled talks signaling an agreement before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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