Friedrich Merz has led a CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition government since May 2025, with the next scheduled Bundestag election not due until 2029. Germany's constitutional rules require a constructive vote of no confidence and a viable alternative majority to remove a chancellor, a high bar that has rarely succeeded mid-term. Despite low approval ratings and tensions over pending reforms on taxes, pensions, and health insurance, coalition partners have continued coordinating on legislation without signs of imminent breakup. Recent state election results and AfD polling gains have increased pressure but have not altered the parliamentary arithmetic enough to force early federal elections or a chancellor change before 2027. Traders therefore assign an 80% implied probability that Merz remains in office through the end of 2026.